India posts the lowest unemployment rate of 2% among G20Union Labour Minister Mansukh Mandaviya said India’s unemployment rate stood at 2%, the lowest in the G20, citing World Economic Forum data. He credited rapid growth and schemes like Pradhan Mantri Viksit Bharat Rozgar Yojana (PM-VBRY), which allocates ₹99,446 crore to create 3.5 crore jobs in 2 years, with 1.92 crore for first-time workers. At an MoU signing with Mentor Together and Quikr, Mandaviya highlighted NCS’s role as India’s top digital job platform, now with 44 lakh active vacancies and 5.79 crore jobseekers. The Quikr tie-up adds 1,200 daily listings across 1,200+ cities, while Mentor Together will mentor 2 lakh youth in year one. The government’s wider ₹2 lakh crore youth package targets 4.1 crore beneficiaries via skilling and self-employment schemes like MUDRA and PM SVANidhi.Finding multi-bagger stocks is essential for building wealth. Discover potential multi-baggers at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/discovery">Sovrenn Discovery.</a>India–Israel $800 Mn Investment Pact Signed, Trade Set to Triple with FTAIndia and Israel on Monday signed a Bilateral Investment Agreement (BIA) to provide stronger protection for investors and boost mutual economic ties. The agreement, signed by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and her Israeli counterpart Bezalel Smotrich, introduces minimum standards of treatment and an independent arbitration mechanism to enhance investor confidence. Bilateral investments currently stand at $800 million, while trade volumes between the two nations have doubled in recent years, with both sides eyeing a three- to four-fold increase through a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) expected to be finalised in the coming months. The pact is also expected to expand cooperation in high-growth areas such as cybersecurity, defence, fintech, innovation, and infrastructure. Both ministers underlined their commitment to building a secure and enabling ecosystem for long-term investments, positioning the partnership as a key pillar of economic and strategic growth.GST 2.0 Brings Relief for Energy Storage Sector with Uniform 18% Battery TaxThe India Energy Storage Alliance (IESA) hailed GST 2.0 as a landmark reform for the sector, noting that the GST Council has streamlined tax rates by bringing all advanced batteries, including flow, sodium-ion, and metal-air, under a uniform 18% slab. Previously, lithium-ion batteries were taxed at 18% while other chemistries faced 28%, creating barriers for emerging technologies. IESA said this move levels the playing field for non-lithium-ion solutions, boosting domestic innovation and supporting India’s long-duration energy storage goals. The reforms also cut GST on ammonia to 5% for the clean hydrogen ecosystem and reduced rates on hydrogen fuel cell vehicles under 4 metres from 12% to 5%. However, requests to slash GST on EV parts, battery separators, and charging services remain pending, with the Fitment Committee citing duty inversion concerns. Despite these, IESA called the reforms forward-looking, saying they lower barriers to clean energy adoption and urged continued dialogue to address remaining tax anomalies.India’s Russian Oil Imports Fall 34% From March Peak to 1.3M bpd as Cargoes Shift to ChinaIndia’s state-owned refiners are struggling to revive purchases of discounted Russian crude as October-loading offers shrink, with cargoes increasingly diverted to China. Russian oil flows to India dropped to 1.3M barrels/day in late August, down from 1.97M in March, according to Bloomberg ship-tracking data. Indian Oil Corp. said procurement continues “depending on economics,” with current discounts at $2–3/barrel to Dubai benchmark. However, imports may fall another 0.25M barrels/day next month, FGE NexantECA warned. The pullback comes as US tariffs and sanctions tighten pressure on Moscow, while OPEC+ supply curbs ease, increasing competition from Middle Eastern producers. Despite this, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman reaffirmed India’s intent to keep buying Russian crude, defying Washington’s push.Investing has built enormous wealth for several HNI investors. Learn investing for FREE OUSARGE at&nbsp;Sovereign<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/education"> Educatio</a>n.&nbsp;GST Cuts to Benefit 10 Crore Dairy Farmers, Lower Input Costs for Agriculture and Food ProcessingThe recent GST rate cuts on dairy products, farm inputs, and food processing items will directly benefit more than 10 crore dairy farmers while boosting India’s cooperative sector, according to the Ministry of Cooperation. The reforms correct inverted duty structures in fertiliser manufacturing, helping check price rises and ensuring timely availability of inputs during sowing. For dairy, exemptions on milk and paneer, along with reduced tax on processing equipment, will improve margins for both individual farmers and cooperatives. Major dairy players like Amul have welcomed the move. Lower prices of tractors and related components are also expected to aid small farmers in fodder cultivation and transporting produce, providing wider benefits across the agriculture and animal husbandry ecosystem.&nbsp;

India posted the lowest unemployment rate in the G20 at 2%, with Union Minister Mandaviya crediting growth and the ₹99,446 crore PM-VBRY scheme targeting 3.5 crore jobs, alongside the NCS platform’s 44 lakh vacancies. India and Israel signed an $800M Bilateral Investment Agreement, expected to triple trade via a forthcoming FTA and deepen cooperation in defence, fintech, and innovation. GST 2.0 unified advanced battery taxes at 18% and cut ammonia to 5%, while reducing dairy and farm input taxes to benefit 10 crore farmers. The reforms also lowered costs for fertilisers, tractors, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, strengthening clean energy adoption. Meanwhile, India’s Russian oil imports fell 34% from March highs to 1.3M bpd as cargoes shifted to China and discounts narrowed. Despite this, Finance Minister Sitharaman reaffirmed India’s intent to keep sourcing Russian crude even under US sanctions pressure.

Sovrenn Times: Macroeconomy Update | 09 Sep 2025

FM Sitharaman: ₹48,000 Cr GST Shortfall to be Offset by Consumption Surge, Fiscal Deficit Target SafeFinance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said the ₹48,000 crore GST revenue shortfall from recent tax cuts will be offset by a consumption-driven buoyancy, ensuring no slippage in the FY26 fiscal deficit target of 4.4% of GDP (₹15.69 lakh crore). The landmark GST overhaul effective Sept 22 reduces rates on nearly 400 items, exempts health and life insurance premiums, and shifts to a 5%, 18%, and 40% slab structure. Sitharaman called it a “people’s reform” that will benefit all households, from the poorest to the middle class. She noted that the consumption boost, combined with Q1 FY26 GDP growth of 7.8%, could push full-year growth above the projected 6.3–6.8% range. Daily-use goods like bread, milk, and paneer will attract zero tax, while EVs and small cars will be taxed at 5% and white goods at 18%. India remains the world’s fastest-growing major economy, ahead of China’s 5.2% Q2 growth.Finding multi-bagger stocks is essential for building wealth. Discover potential multi-baggers at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/discovery">Sovrenn Discovery.</a>India Fast-Tracks Mega Infrastructure Push Under Vision 2047 to Sustain GrowthThe government is prioritising large-scale infrastructure projects, including bullet train corridors, mega shipyards, multiple ports, and 50,000 km of access-controlled highways, as part of its Viksit Bharat 2047 vision. With Rs 11.21 lakh crore earmarked for infrastructure in FY26, ministries have been directed to bundle and fast-track approvals, while encouraging PPPs to optimise spending. Officials said projects of national importance with cross-state impact will get top priority. According to the World Bank, India must raise its real investment rate from 33.5% of GDP to 40% by 2035 to sustain long-term growth. A high-level committee led by IN-SPACe chairman Pawan Goenka is reviewing ministry targets for Vision 2047. The strategy comes as India posted 7.8% GDP growth in Q1, with the Centre pushing infrastructure creation to offset geopolitical and tariff headwinds.India Calls for Export Diversification and Supply Chain Resilience at SCO, Bloc Represents 42% Population &amp; 17.2% Global TradeAt the SCO Trade Ministers’ Meet in Vladivostok, India stressed diversifying exports and building resilient supply chains across the bloc that accounts for 42% of global population and 17.2% of world trade. India pressed for WTO reforms, including a permanent solution on public stockholding and restoration of the dispute settlement system. It proposed SCO collaboration on digital economy, showcasing UPI and ONDC as low-cost replicable models for MSMEs. Mission LiFE was highlighted to link climate action with affordable finance and technology. India also positioned the AVGC sector and film production as engines of jobs and exports. It reaffirmed commitment to inclusive regional growth under Tajikistan’s SCO chairmanship.India’s Coal Imports Fall 16.4% in July to 21 MT on Weak Monsoon Demand, High Stock LevelsIndia’s coal imports dropped 16.4% YoY to 21.08 MT in July, compared to 25.23 MT a year earlier, as monsoon dampened demand and stocks remained high. Imports in April–July fell to 97.49 MT from 100.48 MT last year. Non-coking coal imports slid to 11.54 MT in July from 16.52 MT, while coking coal rose to 5.85 MT from 4.81 MT. In the April–July period, non-coking coal stood at 60.62 MT (vs 65.64 MT) and coking coal at 22.22 MT (vs 20.26 MT). Officials expect demand to rise ahead of the festive season. The government has assured no coal shortages during monsoon, highlighting efforts to reduce import dependence and ensure steady power sector supply.Investing has built enormous wealth for several HNI investors. Learn investing for FREE at&nbsp;Sovrenn<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/education"> Educatio</a>n.India-EU FTA Talks Enter Crucial Phase as Bilateral Trade Hits $135 BillionIndia and the European Union, whose goods trade reached $135 billion in FY24, are pushing to conclude a long-pending Free Trade Agreement (FTA) by year-end. Two back-to-back negotiation rounds are planned — this week in New Delhi and next month in Brussels &nbsp;to resolve differences on rules of origin, market access, and duties on wine and dairy. So far, 11 chapters including digital trade, customs, and SMEs have been finalised, but contentious issues like non-tariff barriers remain. The FTA comes alongside a new EU strategic vision for ties with India, to be unveiled on September 17, and growing cooperation in defence, technology, and counter-terrorism. Leaders on both sides have pledged to fast-track talks, viewing the pact as pivotal for global stability and supply chain resilience.&nbsp;

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said the ₹48,000 crore GST shortfall from recent tax cuts will be offset by a consumption surge, keeping the FY26 fiscal deficit target of 4.4% safe as Q1 GDP grew 7.8%. Alongside, the Centre has fast-tracked its Vision 2047 infrastructure plan with bullet trains, mega shipyards, and ₹11.2 lakh crore in FY26 capex to sustain long-term growth. At the SCO meet, India pressed for export diversification, resilient supply chains, and digital models like UPI and ONDC, while linking climate finance with Mission LiFE. Coal imports fell 16.4% YoY in July to 21 MT on weak monsoon demand and high stock levels, though festive season demand is expected to revive. Meanwhile, India–EU FTA talks entered a decisive phase, with $135B trade at stake and contentious issues like wine, dairy, and non-tariff barriers under negotiation. Together, these moves highlight India’s balancing act between domestic stimulus, global trade diplomacy, and structural reforms.

Sovrenn Times: Macroeconomy Update | 08 Sep 2025

GST Rate Cuts Force Industry Reset: FMCG, Durables, Hotels, and Autos Scramble Ahead of Sept 22 RolloutThe GST Council’s sweeping rate cuts on nearly 400 goods and services, effective September 22, are forcing companies across FMCG, durables, hospitality, and autos to recalibrate prices and systems. Products already dispatched at older rates require credit notes, ERP updates, and relabeling to ensure compliance. FMCG players may adjust pack sizes instead of reducing ₹5–10 price points, while durable makers expect a festive demand boost with items like ACs becoming ₹2,000 cheaper. Hotels under ₹7,500 a night now face only 5% GST, but advance bookings remain under old rates, while airfares in premium classes will attract higher 18% GST. Health and life insurance are now fully exempt from GST, though insurers worry about losing input tax credits. Car dealers face heavy losses on unsold inventory due to the non-refundable cess, with some manufacturers offering partial relief.Finding multi-bagger stocks is essential for building wealth. Discover potential multi-baggers at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/discovery">Sovrenn Discovery.</a>NITI Aayog Charts Path for Pulse Self-Sufficiency: Output to Double by 2047, Surplus of 16.5 MT ExpectedNITI Aayog projects India’s pulse output will rise from 26.06 MT in 2022 to 34.45 MT by 2030 and 51.57 MT by 2047, making the country self-sufficient. Supply is estimated at 30.6 MT by 2030 and 45.8 MT by 2047, creating a surplus of 3.79 MT by 2030 and 16.48 MT by 2047. The strategy includes crop-wise clustering, climate adaptation, high-quality seed distribution, and cluster-based cultivation in 111 high-potential districts. Data-driven monitoring and decision-support systems will back production growth. On the demand side, the report stresses aligning consumption with ICMR-NIN nutritional norms to promote healthier diets. The holistic approach is expected to bridge gaps, ensure Atmanirbharta, and strengthen India’s food security.India’s Tax Reset: ₹1.5 Lakh Cr Revenue Hit, GST Cuts Fuel Consumption Hopes but Capex Still Anchors Growth”India’s tax policy overhaul—personal income tax relief plus GST simplification—is expected to leave more money in consumers’ pockets, with an estimated ₹1.5 lakh crore revenue impact. GST cuts of 7–13% on FMCG items and rate reductions on autos and durables triggered 20–30% stock rallies in discretionary sectors. FMCG firms are projected to pass on benefits through price cuts or higher grammage, boosting sales volumes. However, Axis Bank’s Neelkanth Mishra cautioned that growth will remain capex-driven, not consumption-led, noting GST reform was timed with compensation cess expiry. India’s GDP grew 7.8% in Q1 FY26, with private consumption’s share in GDP rising to 61.4%, the second-highest in 20 years. Yet, Mishra flagged credit growth slowdown—from 16.3% (Mar’24) to 9.8% (May’25)—as the real drag, stressing revival in lending will be key to sustaining momentum.Govt Begins Onion Sales at ₹24/Kg in Delhi, Mumbai, Ahmedabad to Curb Inflation”The Union government has launched subsidised onion sales at ₹24/kg in Delhi, Mumbai, and Ahmedabad to contain retail inflation. In Mumbai, the NCCF began selling onions via mobile vans, expected to move across all wards and sell about 10 tonnes daily. The intervention follows last year’s surge when onions hit ₹100/kg, prompting government sales at ₹35/kg. Currently, the all-India average retail price is ₹28/kg, though some cities report higher than ₹30/kg. The Centre holds a 3 lakh-tonne buffer stock, procured at ₹15/kg under the Price Stabilisation Fund. With domestic onion output estimated at 30.77 MT in 2024-25 (up 27% YoY), the move aims to keep supplies steady and prices affordable ahead of the festive season.Investing has built enormous wealth for several HNI investors. Learn investing for FREE OUSARGE at&nbsp;Sovereign<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/education"> Educatio</a>n.Centre Confident of Meeting 4.4% Fiscal Deficit Target Despite ₹48,000 Cr GST Revenue Hit”The Centre expects to contain FY26 fiscal deficit at 4.4% of GDP, even after an estimated ₹48,000 crore revenue loss from GST rate cuts. Officials believe a festive season consumption boom in goods like TVs and small cars will partly offset losses, with stronger gains expected next year. Some expenditure reprioritisation and savings are planned to manage additional costs, including support for exporters hit by US tariffs. FY26 nominal GDP needs to grow only 8% (vs 10.1% earlier) to meet budget targets, thanks to FY25’s higher-than-projected output. In Q1 FY26, nominal GDP rose 8.8% despite easing inflation. The FY26 budget allocates ₹50.65 lakh crore for spending and a deficit of ₹15.69 lakh crore, although the first four months of the fiscal year have already exhausted 29.9% of the target due to front-loaded spending.&nbsp;

India’s sweeping GST cuts on 400 goods and services from Sept 22 are forcing FMCG, durables, autos, and hotels to reset pricing and compliance systems, with festive demand expected to benefit most. NITI Aayog outlined a roadmap for pulse self-sufficiency by 2047, projecting output to double to 51.6 MT, creating a 16.5 MT surplus. Tax reforms, including GST relief and personal income tax tweaks, may cost ₹1.5 lakh crore in revenue but are expected to boost consumption, even as experts stress capex will remain the main growth driver. To contain food inflation, the government began onion sales at ₹24/kg in key cities, backed by a 3 lakh-tonne buffer stock. Despite the ₹48,000 crore revenue hit from GST cuts, the Centre remains confident of meeting its 4.4% fiscal deficit target for FY26, betting on higher GDP and festive-driven revenues.

Sovrenn Times: Macroeconomy Update | 05 Sep 2025

India Eyes Decisive EU FTA as Germany Pledges Full Support; Deal Could Boost Trade by $50–60BnExternal affairs minister S. Jaishankar said India wants negotiations with the EU for a free trade agreement to reach a "decisive conclusion soon", after talks with German foreign minister Johann Wadephul. The EU is India’s 3rd largest trading partner, with bilateral trade at $155 Bn in FY24, while Germany alone accounts for over $27 Bn. An FTA could lift India’s exports of textiles, pharma, IT services, and agri goods, while easing tariffs on European auto, machinery, and chemicals — potentially adding $50–60 Bn to trade flows over the next 5 years, according to industry estimates. Germany has pledged to double its trade with India, calling New Delhi a key partner amid shifting supply chains. Defence and tech also featured, with both sides agreeing to expand joint drills like Tarang Shakti and naval visits, and Germany praising India’s role as host of the next global AI Summit. Wadephul also urged India to use its influence with Russia to push for Ukraine peace talks, underlining the geopolitical backdrop to trade diplomacy.Finding multi-bagger stocks is essential for building wealth. Discover potential multi-baggers at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/discovery">Sovrenn Discovery.</a>India’s Biggest GST Overhaul: 400 Items Get Cheaper, 2-Slab Structure to Boost GDP by 20–30 bpsThe GST Council has approved the largest reform since GST’s launch in 2017, cutting slabs to 5% and 18% while introducing a 40% rate on sin &amp; luxury goods. From September 22, over 400 items of daily use including food, toiletries, cement, small cars, and medicines will get cheaper, while insurance premiums move to 0% GST. The revamp, expected to cost ₹48,000 Cr in revenue, is projected to lift GDP growth by 20–30 basis points and spur festive demand. Domestic GST rose 9.6% YoY in August, showing strong consumption momentum, while economists expect rationalisation to offset the drag from US tariffs. Process reforms include 3-day GST registration, 7-day refunds for exporters, and automatic registration for small taxpayers. Together, the reforms mark a shift toward simplicity, consumer relief, and higher economic efficiency, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said.FDI Inflows Jump 15% to $18.6 Bn in Q1 FY26; US Tops with $5.6 Bn, Software LeadsIndia’s FDI inflows rose 15% YoY to $18.62 Bn in April–June FY26, with the US tripling investments to $5.61 Bn, overtaking Singapore and Mauritius as top sources, DPIIT data showed. Total FDI, including reinvested earnings and other capital, hit $25.2 Bn, up from $22.5 Bn last year. The software &amp; hardware sector attracted $5.46 Bn, followed by services at $3.28 Bn. Karnataka emerged as the largest FDI hub, followed by Maharashtra. The rebound comes after inflows had slipped 24.5% in Q4 FY25 to $9.34 Bn.India, Germany Address Visa &amp; Trade Barriers; Aim to Double $29.1 Bn Goods TradeIndia raised concerns over migration, mobility, visa delays, and non-tariff barriers faced by exporters in the EU, including Germany, during talks between Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal and German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul. Both sides agreed to work jointly to resolve these issues and smoothen trade flows. Bilateral goods trade stood at $29.12 Bn in FY25, with a shared goal to double this figure in coming years. Discussions also spanned cooperation in innovation, sustainability, and technology. The long-pending India–EU FTA was also reviewed as a key driver to deepen economic ties.Investing has built enormous wealth for several HNI investors. Learn investing for FREE at&nbsp;Sovereign<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/education"> Educatio</a>n.Govt to Procure Cotton at MSP via 550 Centres; Digital ‘Kapas-Kisaan’ App to Streamline PaymentsUnion Textiles Minister Giriraj Singh reviewed preparedness for MSP operations for cotton procurement in Kharif Marketing Season 2025-26, starting October 1. The government assured that all eligible kapas will be procured, with Aadhaar-based farmer self-registration and 7-day slot booking enabled via the new Kapas-Kisaan mobile app. Payments will be made directly to farmers’ bank accounts through Aadhaar-linked NACH, with SMS alerts continuing. A record 550 procurement centres have been set up across major cotton-growing states, with uniform norms for APMC-linked centres. Procurement begins Oct 1 in Northern states, Oct 15 in Central, and Oct 21 in Southern states. Local monitoring committees, helplines, and grievance redressal systems will ensure transparency and farmer support.&nbsp;

India is pushing to conclude a long-pending FTA with the EU, with Germany pledging full support, as bilateral trade with the bloc already stands at $155B and a deal could add $50–60B over five years. Domestically, the GST Council cleared its biggest overhaul, cutting slabs to 5% and 18% (plus 40% for sin goods), making 400 items cheaper and expected to lift GDP by 20–30 bps. FDI inflows rebounded 15% YoY to $18.6B in Q1 FY26, led by the US at $5.6B and the software sector, with Karnataka and Maharashtra as top hubs. At the same time, India and Germany agreed to address visa and trade barriers to double their $29.1B goods trade. On agriculture, the Centre will procure cotton at MSP via 550 centres, with a new Kapas-Kisaan app ensuring Aadhaar-based registration and direct payments to farmers from October.

Sovrenn Times: Macroeconomy Update | 04 Sep 2025

SBI: States to Gain ₹14.1 Lakh Cr From GST 2.0 Despite Short-Term DipAn SBI Research report projects that states will emerge as net gainers from the proposed GST rate rationalisation, with revenues expected to cross ₹14.1 lakh crore in FY26, including devolution. The exercise will shift to a two-tier structure (5% &amp; 18%) with a 40% sin/luxury slab, phasing out the 12% rate. While states may see a 3–4% short-term dip, the report highlights they ultimately accrue ~70% of GST collections, ensuring long-term buoyancy. Opposition states, however, warn of ₹1.5–2 lakh crore potential losses, higher than SBI’s earlier ₹85,000 crore estimate. SBI notes simplification will widen the tax base, cut compliance costs, and improve efficiency, driving structural gains beyond immediate revenue.India Seeks WTO Consultations Over US 50% Copper Tariff; $360M Exports at RiskIndia has requested WTO consultations after the US imposed a 50% tariff on copper products from Aug 1, threatening exports worth $360M in FY25. The duty—applied indefinitely—adds to earlier US tariffs on Indian steel, aluminium, and auto components. India argues the move is a safeguard measure in disguise, while the US cites “security interests.” India is a net copper importer ($14.45B in FY25) but also imports $288M copper scrap from the US, flows that may now be disrupted. The tariff clash has stalled India–US bilateral trade agreement (BTA) talks, where the US is pressing for access to India’s agri/dairy markets. Despite tensions, India–US trade rose 21.6% YoY to $33.5B in Apr–Jul, with both nations aiming to double total trade to $500B by 2030.Finding multi-bagger stocks is essential for building wealth. Discover potential multi-baggers at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/discovery">Sovrenn Discovery.</a>Govt Identifies 10 Highway Corridors for Green Hydrogen Trucks; Logistics Cost Falls 6%The Centre has earmarked 10 highway stretches including Delhi–Agra, Ahmedabad–Surat, and Kochi–Thiruvananthapuram for green hydrogen-powered trucks, with IOC and Reliance setting up hydrogen stations. Truck makers Tata Motors, Ashok Leyland and Volvo have begun production of hydrogen vehicles to support this shift. India aims to cut vehicular pollution and position itself as a global exporter of green hydrogen. Union Minister Nitin Gadkari said logistics costs have already reduced by 6%, backed by IIM Bangalore, IIT Chennai and IIT Kanpur studies. Costs that earlier stood at 14–16% of GDPare targeted to reach single digits by Dec 2025, improving competitiveness against China (8%) and the US/EU (12%). The push aligns with India’s goal of a $5 trillion economy and becoming the world’s No.1 auto market within five yearsUNCTAD: Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Hits Record in Q1 2025, Risks Growth &amp; StabilityThe World Trade Policy Uncertainty Index reached a record high in Q1 2025, rising multi-fold YoY, according to UNCTAD’s Global Trade Update. The surge is raising trade costs, unsettling markets, and disproportionately hurting low-income economies and small firms. The US, as the world’s largest importer, is a key driver—its tariff deadlines triggered 10% higher air shipments in Q1, followed by a sharp Q2 drop. Among 15 mapped economies, India is the second least exposed to US trade policy shifts after China, based on UNCTAD’s intra-industry trade index. The report highlights three risks—higher costs/slower growth, financial instability, and erosion of global trust. UNCTAD recommends advance notice of policy changes, stronger trade agreements, and diversification of export markets to restore resilience.Investing has built enormous wealth for several HNI investors. Learn investing for FREE OUSARGE at&nbsp;Sovereign<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/education"> Educatio</a>n.TN Signs ₹7,020 Cr MoUs in Germany, Secures 15,000+ Jobs Across Auto, Renewable &amp; R&amp;DTamil Nadu CM MK Stalin announced the signing of 26 MoUs worth ₹7,020 Cr, projected to create 15,000+ jobs, during the TNRising Germany Investment Conclave. Of this, 23 MoUs worth ₹3,819 Cr were sealed at the conclave, generating 9,000 jobs, with key global leaders picking TN for their next growth phase. Major investments include Knorr-Bremse’s ₹2,000 Cr plant for railway doors &amp; braking systems (3,500 jobs) and Nordex Group’s ₹1,000 Cr wind turbine expansion (2,500 jobs). ebm-papst committed ₹201 Cr to expand its GCC and manufacturing base, adding 250 jobs in HVAC and auto tech. The state also engaged BMW leadership, pushing for expansion in TN’s strong EV ecosystem. With 60+ German companies already present, Stalin positioned TN as “India’s Germany”, underscoring its role as the industrial heartbeat of the country.&nbsp;

India’s economic landscape is shifting through GST 2.0 reforms, where an SBI report projects states will ultimately gain ₹14.1 lakh crore revenues despite short-term dips. Trade tensions continue as India drags the US to the WTO over a 50% copper tariff, putting $360M exports at risk, even as overall bilateral trade rose 21.6% in Apr–Jul. On infrastructure, the Centre has earmarked 10 corridors for green hydrogen trucks, with Tata, Ashok Leyland, and Volvo gearing up production, targeting logistics costs in single digits by 2025. Globally, UNCTAD flagged record trade policy uncertainty in Q1 2025, warning of growth and trust risks. Meanwhile, Tamil Nadu secured ₹7,020 Cr German investments across auto, renewables, and R&D, creating 15,000+ jobs, reinforcing its position as India’s industrial hub.

Sovrenn Times: Macroeconomy Update | 03 Sep 2025

India Diversifies Trade Beyond US: Engages 6+ Partners as $48Bn Exports Face 50% TariffsIndia is intensifying trade talks with partners beyond the US to safeguard exports amid tariff uncertainty. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal recently met his counterparts from South Africa and Qatar, with trade deal discussions expected soon. India is also strengthening existing agreements with the UAE and Australia, focusing on pharma and healthcare trade facilitation. Alongside, talks are advancing with the EU, Chile, Peru, New Zealand, and Oman, while FTAs with EFTA, UK, and UAE are already concluded. The push comes as the US doubled tariffs on Indian goods, even as bilateral negotiations for a trade pact continue. Goyal emphasized India’s role as the provider of 18% of global growth, underlining the urgency of diversifying export markets.Finding multi-bagger stocks is essential for building wealth. Discover potential multi-baggers at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/discovery">Sovrenn Discovery.</a>India’s Palm Oil Imports Hit 13-Month High at 9.93 Lakh Tons in August; SoyoilSlumps 28%India’s palm oil imports surged 16% MoM to 993,000 tons in August 2025, the highest in 13 months, driven by competitive prices over soyoil ahead of the festive season. In contrast, soyoil imports slumped 28% to 355,000 tons, a six-month low, while sunflower oil jumped 27% to 255,000 tons, a seven-month high. India also imported 6,000 tons of canola oil, its first such purchase in nearly five years. Overall edible oil imports rose 3.6% MoM to 1.6 Mn tons, the highest in over a year. Traders expect palm oil imports to stay above 900,000 tons in September, while soyoil may rebound to 450,000 tons.India’s Economy Holds Steady in August: GST +6.5%, UPI Crosses 20B, PMI at 17.5-Year High Despite US Tariff HeadwindsIndia’s economy showed resilience in August with GST collections rising 6.5% YoY to ₹1.96 lakh crore, though car sales slumped 7% and import-linked GST fell 1.2%. Domestic GST revenue grew faster at +9.6% (₹1.4 lakh cr), while refunds dipped 19.9%. UPI transactions crossed 20B for the first time, though transaction value slipped marginally to ₹24.9 lakh cr. Manufacturing PMI surged to 59.3, the highest in 17.5 years, backed by robust orders and output. Power consumption rose 4.3% YoY, reflecting steady industrial demand. Economists, however, flagged risks from 50% US tariffs, warning growth could moderate from the Q1 FY26 high of 7.8% to ~6.0-6.3% in H2.India–UAE Deepen CEPA Ties: Focus on Pharma, Local Currency Settlement &amp; $100B Trade GoalIndia and the UAE have stepped up cooperation under CEPA, aiming for $100B non-oil, non-precious metals trade by 2030. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal and UAE’s Thani Al Zeyoudi discussed the Local Currency Settlement System (INR–AED) and Bharat Mart as key enablers of smoother trade. In pharma, India welcomed the Emirates Drug Establishment, with both sides agreeing to expedite regulatory clearances and inspections. Healthcare and ayurveda also featured prominently, alongside UAE assurances on faster market access. The UAE raised concerns around India’s food and beverages sector, while India launched the Bharati Scheme to support 100+ agritech and food startups. Goyal also welcomed UAE’s growing investments in Indian infrastructure, logistics, and food processing.Investing has built enormous wealth for several HNI investors. Learn investing for FREE at&nbsp;Sovereign<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/education"> Educatio</a>n.India’s Power Demand Rises 4.3% in August to 150.5 Bn Units Despite Heavy RainsIndia’s power consumption grew 4.3% YoY in August 2025 to 150.5 Bn units, even as heavy rains lowered cooling requirements. Peak power demand touched 229.7 GW, up from 217 GW last year, with most growth led by the western region (+10.7%) and eastern region (+7.7%). Coal stocks at power plants fell by nearly 4 Mn tonnes to 50.3 Mn tonnes, reflecting seasonal depletion. On the Indian Energy Exchange, real-time market volumes surged 44.3% to 5,029 Mn units, while day-ahead volumes rose 2.6% to 4,834 Mn units. Officials attributed the uptick partly to a low base effect as demand was subdued in August 2024.&nbsp;

India is ramping up trade diversification beyond the US, engaging South Africa, Qatar, EU, Chile, Peru, and others as $48B of exports face 50% tariffs, while deepening CEPA ties with the UAE through local currency settlement and a $100B trade goal. August data showed resilience: GST collections rose 6.5% YoY to ₹1.96 lakh cr, UPI crossed 20B transactions, and the manufacturing PMI hit a 17.5-year high at 59.3, though auto sales fell and tariff risks may slow growth. On commodities, palm oil imports hit a 13-month high of 9.93 lakh tons, while soyoil slumped 28% and sunflower oil surged. Power consumption climbed 4.3% to 150.5 Bn units, with peak demand nearing 230 GW despite heavy rains, reflecting steady industrial momentum.

Sovrenn Times: Macroeconomy Update | 02 Sep 2025

Private Sector Capex to Surge 21.5% to ₹2.67 Lakh Cr in FY26, Driven by Infra &amp; Lower Rates: RBIPrivate corporate investment is projected to rise 21.5% YoY to ₹2.67 lakh crore in FY26, up from ₹2.20 lakh crore in FY25, according to an RBI bulletin article. The surge is attributed to healthier balance sheets, higher cash buffers, stronger profitability, diversified funding access, and supportive macro fundamentals. Key drivers include a 100-bps policy rate cut, sustained disinflation, easy liquidity, and rising capacity utilisation. The infrastructure sector, led by power, remains the largest magnet for fresh investments, dominated by greenfield projects that signal both cyclical recovery and structural capacity building.The article, authored by RBI’s Department of Statistics &amp; Information Management, cautions that geopolitical tensions, global demand slowdown, and external risks could temper momentum. However, India’s domestic fundamentals remain robust. Execution of pipeline projects and continued policy push for infrastructure and project monitoring will be critical for translating intentions into durable growth.Finding multi-bagger stocks is essential for building wealth. Discover potential multi-baggers at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/discovery">Sovrenn Discovery.</a>Shrimp Exports Face 15–18% Fall as US Tariffs Hit 58%India’s shrimp exports are projected to drop 15–18% in FY26, with revenues declining 18–20% YoY, after the US hiked total import duty to 58.26%. The US, which accounted for 48% of India’s $5 Bn shrimp exports in FY25, now poses a major challenge as rivals like Ecuador and Vietnam face much lower tariffs. Exporters cannot pass on higher costs, leading to a 150–200 bps margin contraction and profitability plunging to a decade-low of 5–5.5%. An analysis of 63 exporters covering 55% of industry revenues shows weaker debt protection and stressed credit profiles. The sharp duty burden has also hit premium value-added shrimp sales, reducing capacity utilisation. While exporters explore alternative markets and product mix shifts, near-term competitiveness in the US remains heavily eroded.Govt Notifies Rules for 100% FDI in Insurance, Awaits Parliament NodThe finance ministry has notified draft rules paving the way for 100% foreign direct investment (FDI) in Indian insurance companies, replacing the current 74% cap with “as stipulated by the Insurance Act, 1938.” Once Parliament passes the Insurance Laws (Amendment) Bill, foreign investment will be permitted under the automatic route, subject to verification by the IRDAI. The February 2025 Budget had announced the move, clarifying that the enhanced FDI cap will apply only to insurers investing their entire premium collections within India. The bill also proposes composite licences and permitting foreigners as key managerial personnel (KMPs). Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said the reform would unlock the sector’s full potential, improve penetration, and support the industry’s projected 7.1% annual growth rate over the next five years, ahead of global peers.NHAI Rolls Out India’s First Barrier-Free MLFF Tolling System in GujaratThe National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) has launched India’s first Multi-Lane Free Flow (MLFF) tolling system at Choryasi Fee Plaza, Gujarat (NH-48), with another site set to open at Gharaunda Plaza, Haryana (NH-44) under a partnership with ICICI Bank. Part of a mega plan to deploy MLFF at 25 toll plazas in FY26, the system uses FASTag, RFID readers, and ANPR cameras to enable toll deduction without stopping vehicles. This move promises reduced congestion, faster travel, improved fuel efficiency, and lower emissions, while also ensuring more accurate toll revenue collection. The barrier-free tolling initiative marks a major step toward building a smarter, more efficient highway network across India.Investing has built enormous wealth for several HNI investors. Learn investing for FREE OUSARGE at&nbsp;Sovereign<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/education"> Educatio</a>n.India’s Fiscal Deficit Widens to 29.9% of FY26 Target on Front-Loaded CapexIndia’s fiscal deficit touched ₹4.68 lakh crore (29.9% of FY26 target) by July, sharply higher than 17.2% a year ago, driven by front-loaded spending and weaker tax collections. Revenue expenditure rose 17.1% YoY to ₹12.17 lakh crore, while capital outlay surged 32.8% to ₹3.47 lakh crore, underscoring the Centre’s push for high-multiplier growth investments. Net tax revenue fell 7.5% to ₹6.62 lakh crore, dragged by lower personal income tax inflows in July, but non-tax revenue jumped 33.7% to ₹4.04 lakh crore thanks to the RBI’s record ₹2.69 lakh crore dividend transfer. In July alone, the deficit was ₹1.88 lakh crore with tax receipts dropping 26.6%. Analysts expect moderation in expenditure to help meet the 4.4% fiscal deficit-to-GDP target, though pending GST reforms may affect fiscal leeway, currently pegged at ₹50,000 crore by ICRA.&nbsp;

India’s private sector capex is set to surge 21.5% in FY26 to ₹2.67 lakh crore, led by infrastructure, lower rates, and stronger balance sheets, though global risks could temper execution. However, shrimp exports face a 15–18% fall after the US hiked duties to 58%, slashing margins and competitiveness in a market that absorbs nearly half of India’s seafood shipments. In a landmark reform, the government notified rules for 100% FDI in insurance, pending Parliament nod, to unlock penetration and growth in a sector projected to expand 7.1% annually. On infrastructure, NHAI rolled out India’s first barrier-free MLFF toll system in Gujarat, part of a 25-plaza rollout aimed at cutting congestion and emissions while improving revenue efficiency. Meanwhile, India’s fiscal deficit widened to 29.9% of the FY26 target by July due to front-loaded capex and weak tax inflows, though higher RBI dividends offered some relief. Together, these trends highlight India’s growth push through investment and reforms, even as external trade shocks and fiscal strains pose near-term challenges.

Sovrenn Times: Macroeconomy Update | 1 Sep 2025

Govt Extends Cotton Import Duty Exemption Till Dec 31 to Ease Textile Costs Amid US TariffsThe government has extended the 11% cotton import duty waiver till December 31, 2025, offering the textile industry cost relief through the festive season as domestic cotton output hit a 15-year low of 29.4M bales. India has already imported 3.9M bales this year, with estimates suggesting a record 4.2M bales. Industry bodies like CITI welcomed the move, saying it would cut input costs by 1–5% since global cotton is about 10% cheaper than Indian cotton, supporting exporters struggling after the US imposed a 50% tariff on Indian goods (the US accounts for 28% of India’s textile exports). However, farmers raised concerns, warning that unrestricted imports may suppress domestic prices and increase farmer losses. India’s cotton yarn exports fell 6% in FY25, continuing the post-2021 decline caused by higher local cotton prices.Finding multi-bagger stocks is essential for building wealth. Discover potential multi-baggers at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/discovery">Sovrenn Discovery.</a>US Tariffs Could Cut India’s GDP by ~0.5%, Warns Ex-Commerce Secy G.K. PillaiA 50% tariff imposed by the US on Indian exports may shave approximately 0.5% off India's GDP, particularly hitting labour-intensive sectors like textiles, gems &amp; jewellery, seafood, leather, chemicals, and machinery, former Commerce Secretary G.K. Pillaistated .While the immediate macroeconomic impact may be modest, Mr. Pillai warned that profitability may dip for about 3–6 months, potentially forcing some businesses to lay off employees. He emphasized that timely government interventions will be essential to alleviate these challenges.Export values affected are substantial—more than $48 billion in shipments are now exposed to steep duties. To counter this, Mr.&nbsp;Pillai recommended incentivizing exporters to explore new markets and adopt business models that enhance their competitiveness.PMJDY Turns 11: 56 Cr Accounts Opened, ₹2.68 Lakh Cr Deposits MobilisedMarking 11 years of Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana (PMJDY), Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced that 56 crore accounts have been opened since its launch on 28th August 2014, mobilising deposits worth ₹2.68 lakh crore. The scheme has also issued 38 crore free RuPay cards, driving digital payments adoption. Notably, 67% of accounts are in rural/semi-urban areas and 56% are held by women, highlighting its role in financial empowerment. The government credited PMJDY as a backbone for Direct Benefit Transfers (DBT), credit access, and social security coverage. Minister of State for Finance Pankaj Chaudhary called it one of the world’s most successful inclusion programmes, citing ongoing saturation drives across 2.7 lakh Gram Panchayats to ensure universal access to accounts, insurance, and pensions. PMJDY has thus become a cornerstone of India’s financial inclusion strategy, bringing millions of underprivileged citizens into the formal economy.Investing has built enormous wealth for several HNI investors. Learn investing for FREE OUSARGE at&nbsp;Sovereign<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/education"> Educatio</a>n.GST Cut Can Add 20–50 bps to GDP Growth, Multiplier Effect (1.08x) Outpaces Income Tax Reduction: Ambit CapitalA report by Ambit Capital finds that a 1% cut in GST rates has a multiplier effect of 1.08x, higher than income tax or corporate tax reductions, making it the most impactful fiscal stimulus tool. If rate cut benefits are passed on to consumers, GDP growth could rise by 20–50 bps. Unlike direct taxes, GST impacts all consumers at the point of sale, amplifying consumption across the economy. However, the report cautions that GST rationalisation could cause an annual revenue loss of ₹0.7–1.8 trillion, mostly borne by states, suggesting higher rates on sin and luxury goods (up to 40%) to offset losses. Lower GST is expected to boost discretionary spending in automobiles and appliances, though FMCG and cement may see limited impact due to inelastic demand. Rationalising multiple GST slabs could also reduce compliance costs, prevent misclassification, and expand the tax base, bringing more MSMEs into the formal economy.Industrial Output Hits 4-Month High at 3.5% in July, Boosted by ManufacturingIndia’s Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew 3.5% in July 2025, a four-month highversus 1.5% in June, aided by a 5.4% YoY surge in manufacturing, its best in six months. Mining contracted 7.2%, while electricity rose just 0.6%, dragging overall growth. Within manufacturing, key drivers were electrical equipment (+15.9%), basic metals (+12.7%), and non-metallic minerals (+9.5%), with 14 of 23 industry groups showing gains. By usage, infrastructure/construction goods soared 11.9% (21-month high), while capital goods rose 5%, hinting at stronger investment demand. Consumer durables grew 7.7%, aided by pre-festive stocking, while non-durables rose only 0.5%. Economists flagged weak private investment and global headwinds, though GST cuts and export orders may aid momentum. With a favourable base, August growth is expected at 5–6%, sustaining the recovery despite risks from the US’s 50% tariff on Indian goods.&nbsp;

India extended the 11% cotton import duty waiver till Dec 2025 to ease textile costs as output hit a 15-year low, though farmers fear price suppression. Former Commerce Secretary G.K. Pillai warned that US tariffs on $48B exports could shave 0.5% off GDP, triggering short-term profit and jobs stress in labour-intensive sectors. On a brighter note, PMJDY marked 11 years with 56 crore accounts and ₹2.68 lakh crore deposits, cementing its role in financial inclusion. An Ambit Capital report found GST cuts have the strongest multiplier effect (1.08x), potentially adding 20–50 bps to GDP, though with revenue trade-offs. Meanwhile, industrial output hit a 4-month high at 3.5% in July, led by double-digit growth in electrical equipment, metals, and construction goods, signaling manufacturing resilience despite global and tariff headwinds. Together, these developments highlight India’s balancing act between external shocks, fiscal reforms, and domestic growth drivers.

Sovrenn Times: Macroeconomy Update | 29 August 2025

India’s Manufacturing GVA Hits ₹24.6 Lakh Cr in FY24, Employment Up to 19.5MIndia’s manufacturing GVA grew 11.9% YoY to ₹24.6 Lakh Cr in FY24, up from ₹21.9 Lakh Cr in FY23, and marking a 65.5% surge over pre-pandemic FY20 (₹14.8 Lakh Cr), per the Annual Survey of Industries (ASI) 2023-24. Key contributors were basic metals (11.6%), motor vehicles (9.1%), chemical products (8.8%), food products (7.4%), and 8pharma (7.2%). Industrial output rose 5.8% to ₹153.3 Lakh Cr, while invested capital climbed 10.8% to ₹68 Lakh Cr. Employment grew 5.9% YoY to 19.5M workers, exceeding pre-pandemic levels (16.6M in FY20). Over the last decade (2014–24), the sector added 57 lakh jobs. By sector, food products employed 2.2M, followed by textiles (1.7M), basic metals (1.5M), and motor vehicles (1.4M). Tamil Nadu (2.9M), Gujarat (2.6M), Maharashtra (2.5M), UP (1.6M), and Karnataka (1.2M) together accounted for more than half of total factory jobs.Finding multi-bagger stocks is essential for building wealth. Discover potential multi-baggers at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/discovery">Sovrenn Discovery.</a>India Eyes Shrimp Demand Push: Per Capita Consumption Half of Japan, 40% Exports at US RiskWith the US imposing steep tariffs on Indian shrimp exports, the government has formed a committee under the National Fisheries Development Board (NFDB) to build a robust domestic shrimp market. The panel, led by NFDB’s S. Kannappan, includes stakeholders from farmers, feed makers, and MPEDA. India’s per capita shrimp consumption is nearly half of Japan’s, highlighting the untapped demand potential. Farmers have proposed measures like live shrimp transport without water and consumer experience centres to expand reach. Awareness drives, including stalls promoting shrimp’s health benefits, are being considered. Shrimp farmers say a strong local market is vital to ensure fair value for their produce and reduce dependence on the US, which currently absorbs ~40% of India’s seafood exports.India Targets 40 Nations with $590B Textile Imports as US Tariffs Hit $48B ExportsTo offset the impact of 50% US tariffs on $48B worth of exports, India is rolling out textile outreach programmes in 40 countries, including the UK, UAE, Russia, Japan, and South Korea. These markets collectively import $590B in textiles and apparel, but India holds only a 5–6% share, leaving significant room for expansion. The commerce ministry will drive a Brand India campaign, push participation in exhibitions and trade fairs, and conduct buyer-seller meets. Export Promotion Councils will lead market mapping and link domestic clusters to overseas demand. With the US—India’s largest trading partner, accounting for 20% of FY25 exports ($437B)—no longer a level playing field, officials say FTAs and new trade negotiations are key to positioning India as a reliable, sustainable, and innovative supplier in these target geographies.Investing has built enormous wealth for several HNI investors. Learn investing for FREE OUSARGE at&nbsp;Sovereign<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/education"> Educatio</a>n.Industrial Jobs Rise 6% to 1.95 Cr in FY24; GVA Jumps 12% to ₹24.6 Lakh Cr: ASIIndia’s industries added 11 lakh jobs in FY24, with employment rising 5.92% YoY to 1.95 Cr from 1.84 Cr in FY23, per the Annual Survey of Industries (ASI) 2023-24. Over the last decade (2014–24), the sector generated 57 lakh jobs. Gross Value Added (GVA) in industries grew 11.9% to ₹24.6 Lakh Cr from ₹21.97 Lakh Cr, while invested capital rose 10.8% to ₹68 Lakh Cr. The top five GVA-contributing industries were basic metals, motor vehicles, chemicals, food products, and pharmaceuticals. On jobs, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, and Karnataka emerged as the top five states. Conducted by MoSPI, the ASI provides insights into industrial output, value addition, employment, and capital formation, feeding into National Accounts Statistics at both national and state levels.ST Detects ₹104 Cr Illicit Tobacco in Q1 FY26; Smuggled Cigarette Seizures Top ₹600 CrGST authorities unearthed 61 cases of illicit tobacco trade worth ₹104.38 Cr between April–June 2025, per government data. Enforcement agencies including DGGI and DRIseized 3.93 Cr cigarette sticks in the quarter, with smuggled cigarette seizures surging 107% in volume and 110% in value (FY20–FY24). Former CBIC chief PC Jha estimated FY25 seizures by DRI, CRPF, and Assam Rifles at ₹600 Cr, warning that high tobacco taxes fuel smuggling and revenue loss. To counter evasion, the Finance Act 2025introduced a track-and-trace mechanism for tobacco and pan masala, mandating timely reporting by manufacturers, alongside new penalties for violations. Experts, however, caution that moves like a third 40% GST slab could worsen grey trade and revenue instability. The government is positioning upcoming GST reforms as a chance to balance tax moderation with enforcement to curb illicit trade in high-margin goods like gold, alcohol, and tobacco.&nbsp;

India’s manufacturing GVA rose 11.9% YoY to ₹24.6 lakh crore in FY24, with 19.5M employed—57 lakh jobs added over the last decade—led by metals, autos, chemicals, food, and pharma, with Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, and Maharashtra topping job creation. Amid 50% US tariffs on $48B exports, India is pushing shrimp demand domestically—per capita consumption is half of Japan’s—and expanding textile outreach to 40 countries with $590B import potential. The ASI survey confirmed industrial jobs rose 6% in FY24 alongside strong GVA and capital growth. Meanwhile, GST authorities detected ₹104 crore illicit tobacco trade in Q1 FY26, with smuggled cigarette seizures topping ₹600 crore in FY25, prompting new track-and-trace systems and enforcement. Together, these shifts underline India’s twin challenge: sustaining industrial growth and exports while plugging tax leakages in high-margin goods.

Sovrenn Times: Macroeconomy Update | 28 August 2025

$48.2B Indian Exports Face 50% US Tariffs; Govt Plans ₹25,000 Cr Export Mission ShieldFrom Wednesday, Aug 27, the US will impose a 50% tariff on $48.2B of Indian exports, hitting labour-intensive sectors like textiles, shrimp, leather, and gems &amp; jewellery, while pharma, electronics, and petroleum remain exempt. India exported $86B to the US in FY25, making it the country’s largest market; the shrimp sector alone risks distress as the US absorbs 40% of Indian seafood exports. Reports show textile hubs in Tiruppur, Noida, and Surat have already slowed production as rivals like Vietnam and Bangladesh gain ground. The Centre is formulating a multi-pronged strategy, anchored by a ₹25,000 Cr Export Promotion Mission, including trade finance, SEZ reforms, ecommerce hubs, and Brand India marketing. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal flagged a possible GST revamp to boost domestic demand while trade diversification talks with other economies continue. A bilateral trade agreement (BTA) with the US is under negotiation, though US negotiators postponed their Aug 25 visit.Finding multi-bagger stocks is essential for building wealth. Discover potential multi-baggers at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/discovery">Sovrenn Discovery.</a>India, US Hold 2+2 Dialogue on Trade, Energy &amp; Defence; 10-Year Security Framework on CardsAmid tensions over US tariff moves, India and the US held a 2+2 Intersessional Dialoguecovering trade, investment, critical minerals, and energy security, with a strong focus on civil nuclear cooperation. Both sides discussed advancing defence industrial, science, and technology ties, including plans for a new 10-year framework for the Major Defence Partnership. Talks built on progress under India-US COMPACT (CatalyzingOpportunities for Military Partnership, Accelerated Commerce &amp; Technology), aimed at deepening military and commercial cooperation. The MEA said participants reaffirmed their commitment to a free, open, and prosperous Indo-Pacific via the Quad. The meeting was co-chaired by Nagaraj Naidu Kakanur (MEA) and Vishwesh Negi (MoD) from India, alongside Bethany P. Morrison (US State Dept.) and Jedidiah P. Royal (US Defence Dept.). Both sides concluded by stressing eagerness to expand bilateral cooperation across security and commerce in ways that directly benefit people of both nations.NaBFID to Raise $1B Overseas in FY26; ₹2.4 Lakh Cr Pipeline, Push on Municipal BondsNaBFID, India’s infrastructure-focused DFI, plans to raise up to $1B in FY26 from global markets via ECBs and bonds, after securing international ratings, MD Rajkiran Rai said at FIBAC 2025. Of its ₹2.4 lakh cr sanctioned pipeline, about ₹90,000 cr will be disbursed, with borrowings split between domestic and international routes depending on cost domestic yields have already added 10–15 bps. Rai said US tariffs will not affect NaBFID’sdisbursements, stressing the need to accelerate project launches to sustain growth. He also highlighted a structural gap in municipal bond issuances only 7 so far vs a potential 500 local bodies in 5 years—with NaBFID setting up an advisory arm to address balance sheet and ratings challenges. The DFI expects to be a key enabler of India’s infrastructure financing push while diversifying funding through both global and domestic markets.Investing has built enormous wealth for several HNI investors. Learn investing for FREE OUSARGE at&nbsp;Sovereign<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/education"> Educatio</a>n.States Push Anti-Profiteering Safeguards Ahead of GST 2.0 Recast TalksAhead of the GST Council meet on Sept 3–4, some states have urged strict mechanisms to ensure GST 2.0 rate-cut benefits reach consumers and aren’t absorbed by businesses. Proposals include temporary anti-profiteering laws (4–6 months) with heavy penalties, consumer grievance platforms, and involving the consumer affairs ministry for enforcement. Concerns are particularly around insurance, consumer durables, and small cars/two-wheelers, where pricing gaps could arise. While the earlier GST rollout had an anti-profiteering body, it was phased out; some states now want it revived temporarily. Officials note that Section 74 (wilful tax evasion) under the GST Act could already be used to tackle profiteering, though a legal amendment may be needed for a dedicated clause. Industry, meanwhile, has asked that repricing of inventory and service contracts be considered, warning that rate cuts could cause duty inversion in some sectors, preventing actual price reductions.FIEO Flags Crisis as $47B Exports Face 50% US Tariffs; Calls for Credit &amp; Policy SupportWith the US set to raise tariffs on Indian goods to 50% from Aug 27, apex exporters’ body FIEO warned of a severe blow to shipments worth $47–48B (55% of India’s US exports). Textiles and apparel hubs in Tirupur, Noida, and Surat have already halted production as pricing disadvantages of 30–35% make Indian goods uncompetitive versus rivals from Vietnam, Bangladesh, China, and Mexico. Labour-intensive sectors like leather, shrimp, ceramics, handicrafts, and carpets are also at risk of order cancellations and margin erosion. FIEO President S.C. Ralhan urged immediate support via interest subvention, export credit access, and a one-year loan moratorium to ease MSME liquidity stress. He called for expanding PLI schemes, infra investments, cold-chain assets, and FTAs (EU, GCC, Latin America) with early-harvest clauses for vulnerable sectors. While diplomatic engagement with the US remains critical, Ralhan stressed the need to also promote Brand India, global certifications, and innovation-led exports to retain competitiveness in world markets.&nbsp;

India faces a major trade shock as the US imposes 50% tariffs on $48.2 billion of exports from August 27, hitting labour-intensive sectors like textiles, shrimp, leather, and gems & jewellery, even as the government drafts a ₹25,000 crore Export Promotion Mission to cushion MSMEs and diversify markets. At the same time, India and the US held a 2+2 dialogue covering trade, energy, and defence, with plans for a 10-year security framework and deeper civil nuclear cooperation under the Quad. On the domestic front, NaBFID will raise $1 billion overseas in FY26 to fund its ₹2.4 lakh crore infra pipeline and push municipal bond issuance, while states are pressing for anti-profiteering safeguards in GST 2.0 to ensure tax cut benefits reach consumers. Exporters’ body FIEO has flagged a crisis, warning of cancellations and margin erosion on $47B worth of goods, and urging urgent relief through credit access, FTAs, and infra support as rivals like Vietnam and Bangladesh gain share. Overall, while tariffs pose short-term risks, India is leaning on infra financing, tax reforms, and diplomatic engagement to safeguard growth momentum.

Sovrenn Times: Macroeconomy Update | 27 Aug 2025

90% of Japanese Firms in India Profitable; Executives See ‘FOMO’ Driving Fresh CapitalAt a panel on the Indo-Japan corridor, senior Japanese executives highlighted India’s size, growth, demographics, and regulatory stability as unmatched long-term investment drivers. Over 1,500 Japanese firms operate in India, and 90% of those present for 10+ years are profitable, making India their most favoured destination in annual surveys. Executives cited government programmes like Make in India, Startup India, and PLI schemes as catalysts for the China-plus-one strategy. Case studies include Suzuki, Honda, Kawasaki, Kansai, and JSW–JFE steel collaborations. Mizuho’s Koichi Zaiki said capital-rich Japan faces shrinking population and slowing demand at home, pushing firms to India where “Japan has processes, India has vibrancy.” With C-suite delegations now leading investment explorations, and cash-rich firms pressured to deploy capital, Zaikinoted India’s recent credit rating upgrade adds momentum. Credit Saison’s Kosuke Mori added that digital rails like UPI and Jan Dhan give Japanese NBFCs tools to bridge India’s credit demand–supply gap, fueling growth.Finding multi-bagger stocks is essential for building wealth. Discover potential multi-baggers at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/discovery">Sovrenn Discovery.</a>Govt Cuts Honey Export MEP by 30% to $1,400/Tonne; Exports Worth $177.5M in FY24The government has reduced the minimum export price (MEP) of natural honey from $2,000 to $1,400/tonne (–30%), effective immediately and valid until Dec 31, 2025, per a DGFT notification. Exports below this threshold remain prohibited. India’s key honey export markets are the US, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, while major producing states include Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Punjab, Bihar, and Rajasthan. The MEP was first imposed in March 2024 to regulate trade flows. India exported $177.52M worth of honey in FY24, supported by the Centre’s National Beekeeping and Honey Mission (NBHM), which promotes scientific beekeeping for sectoral growth. The revision is expected to boost competitiveness and expand India’s market share in global honey exports.Fitch Affirms India at BBB- with Stable Outlook; FY26 GDP Growth Seen at 6.5%, CAD at 0.7%Fitch Ratings reaffirmed India’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency IDR at ‘BBB-’ with a Stable Outlook, citing robust growth and solid external finances. GDP is projected to grow 6.5% in FY26, unchanged from FY25 and far above the BBB median of 2.5%, supported by strong public capex and private consumption. Fitch flagged US tariff risks(50% proposed vs current 25%) but expects only modest GDP impact as US exports form 2% of GDP, with GST reforms likely cushioning demand. Inflation remains contained (headline at 1.6% in July 2025), giving RBI space for another 25bp rate cut after reducing repo to 5.5%. On fiscal health, the CG deficit fell to 4.8% of GDP in FY25 from 9.2% in FY21, forecast to hit 4.4% in FY26, though high GG debt (80.9% of GDP in FY25) and an interest/revenue ratio of 23.5% remain weaknesses. External buffers are strong, with $695B in FX reserves (8 months import cover) and a low CAD of 0.7% of GDP in FY26, reinforcing resilience despite structural fiscal pressures.India’s Coal Imports Up 1.5% to 76.4 MT in Q1 FY26; CIL Output Falls 8.5% in JuneIndia’s coal imports rose 1.5% YoY to 76.40 MT in Apr–Jun FY26, up from 75.26 MT a year earlier, per mjunction data. Imports in June climbed to 23.91 MT from 22.97 MT last year. Non-coking coal imports were largely flat at 49.08 MT vs 49.12 MT, while coking coal imports grew 6% to 16.37 MT. In June alone, non-coking coal stood at 14.85 MT(+5%) and coking coal at 5.78 MT (+6%) YoY. Meanwhile, Coal India Ltd. (CIL), which supplies 80% of domestic output, saw production fall 8.5% YoY to 57.8 MT in June, from 63.1 MT, largely due to seasonal monsoon disruptions. Despite this, Coal Minister G. Kishan Reddy assured no shortages for the power sector, with the ministry committed to sustainable growth, higher availability, and reduced import dependence. The coal sector remains central to meeting India’s energy demand and powering growth.Investing has built enormous wealth for several HNI investors. Learn investing for FREE OUSARGE at&nbsp;Sovereign<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/education"> Educatio</a>n.UP Bans 11 Pesticides to Protect ₹50,000 Cr Basmati Exports Amid Global Rejection RisksThe Uttar Pradesh government has enforced a 3-month ban (from Aug 1, 2025) on 11 pesticides—including acephate, chlorpyriphos, tricyclazole, tebuconazole, and imidacloprid—that leave residues lowering rice quality and causing rejection in key export markets. India, one of the world’s largest basmati rice exporters (worth ~₹50,000 Cr annually), faces objections from the EU, US, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrainover contaminated shipments. The ban, previously imposed two years ago, was reintroduced after recurring complaints, with authorities warning farmers that rice grown with banned pesticides may only fetch lower domestic prices. Awareness drives, press releases, and letters are being circulated to ensure compliance, while cooperatives are supplying essentials like urea to farmers. Early adoption is visible in districts like Moradabad, where cultivators have shifted toward chemical-free practices to safeguard export opportunities and avoid past losses from returned consignments.&nbsp;

Japanese investment confidence in India is rising, with 90% of Japanese firms profitable and executives citing “FOMO” as capital-rich companies seek growth beyond a stagnant domestic market. The government cut honey’s minimum export price by 30% to $1,400/tonne to boost competitiveness, after exports hit $177.5M in FY24. Fitch affirmed India’s BBB- rating with a stable outlook, projecting 6.5% GDP growth in FY26, strong reserves ($695B), and a narrowing fiscal deficit despite high debt levels. Coal imports grew 1.5% in Q1 FY26 to 76.4 MT, while Coal India’s June output fell 8.5% due to monsoon disruptions, though supply for power remains assured. Uttar Pradesh banned 11 pesticides to protect ₹50,000 Cr worth of basmati exports, following repeated rejections in global markets.

Sovrenn Times: Macroeconomy Update | 26 Aug 2025

CII Unveils 250-Point Reform Roadmap for Viksit BharatThe Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) has released a blueprint titled “Policies for a Competitive India”, outlining 250+ actionable recommendations across 14 reform areas to fast-track India’s economic transformation. The roadmap calls for a simplified GST structure with expanded coverage to petroleum and real estate, rationalised tariffs, and a national employment &amp; gig economy policy. It proposes privatisation of non-strategic PSEs, creation of a sovereign wealth fund, and second-generation IBC reforms alongside time-bound approvals and single-window clearances. Energy reforms include competitive tariffs, stronger transmission, nuclear participation, and a green hydrogen roadmap. CII also pushes for labour code streamlining, minimum wage frameworks, MSME compliance ease, and e-commerce export strategies, while integrating climate adaptation with digitised climate data and sustainability-linked procurement. With India on track to become the world’s third-largest economy, CII leaders argue these reforms will bolster growth, jobs, resilience, and global competitiveness under the government’s Viksit Bharat vision.Finding multi-bagger stocks is essential for building wealth. Discover potential multi-baggers at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/discovery">Sovrenn Discovery.</a>India’s Outbound Investments Surge 68% to $41.6B in FY25, ESG &amp; GIFT City Drive ExpansionIndia’s outbound investments surged 67.7% YoY to $41.6B in FY25, up from $24.8B in FY24, with transactions rising 15%, per EY’s India Abroad 2025 report. Growth is being driven by diversification, ESG integration, and tech-led expansion, spanning IT, energy, pharma, auto, and hospitality sectors. Traditional hubs like Singapore, Netherlands, and Mauritius are giving way to UAE, Luxembourg, and Switzerland, offering tax efficiency, regulatory clarity, and alignment with India’s green and digital priorities. The UAE’s CEPA-backed opportunities, Luxembourg’s green finance ecosystem, and Switzerland’s IP-friendly infrastructure are emerging as new gateways. Meanwhile, GIFT City outbound flows jumped 100% in two years (from $0.04B in FY23 to $0.81B in FY25), positioning it as a cost-effective hub with tax and regulatory advantages. With global tax shifts and sustainability norms tightening, Indian firms are embedding carbon pricing, supply chain due diligence, and green finance into their overseas strategies, marking a decisive shift in outward capital flows.Govt Plans ₹25,000 Cr Export Support Mission to Counter 50% Trump TariffsThe government is weighing a ₹25,000 crore Export Promotion Mission (FY25–31) to shield Indian exporters from global trade shocks, including the new 50% US tariffs on Indian goods (effective Aug 27, up from 25%). The Commerce Ministry’s proposal—sent to the Finance Ministry’s EFC—focuses on affordable credit, trade finance, and MSME support. The Mission has two sub-schemes: Niryat Protsahan (₹10,000+ cr) for interest equalisation (₹5,000+ cr), alternative financing tools, and e-commerce exporter credit cards, and Niryat Disha (₹14,500+ cr) for quality compliance (₹4,000 cr), overseas market development (₹4,000+ cr), branding, logistics, and capacity building. Anchored by the Commerce Ministry with MSME, Finance, Exim Bank, ECGC, CGTMSE, and states, the plan targets sectors like textiles, chemicals, leather, and footwear, most exposed to Trump tariffs. India’s exports rose 7.3% YoY to $37.24B in July, lifting FY26 (Apr–Jul) exports to $149.2B (+3.1%), though the trade deficit widened to an 8-month high of $27.35B.Investing has built enormous wealth for several HNI investors. Learn investing for FREE OUSARGE at&nbsp;Sovereign<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/education"> Educatio</a>n.MP CM Mohan Yadav Pitches Self-Reliance, ₹66K Cr Exports &amp; 15% Annual Budget GrowthMP CM Mohan Yadav stressed self-reliance, noting that only UP, Maharashtra, and MPare funding growth without loans. The state’s fiscal deficit narrowed to 4.11% in FY25(from 5.44% in FY21), while GSDP rose 6.05% YoY to ₹7.1 lakh crore. Exports hit ₹66,218 crore in FY25, up 1.5% YoY, supported by strong mineral, cement, iron, and steel output. MP is driving health infra via a PPP medical college model (25 acres for ₹1, reclaimed in 10 years), while industry incentives include direct approvals for projects above ₹500 crore, electricity rebates, and cut in permissions from 29 to 10. Employment-linked subsidies of ₹5,000 per worker for 10 years helped lift labour force participation to 72.7% in FY24 (vs 67.8% in FY23). Tourism is booming with 200+ new hotels planned, while the state budget is targeted to expand 15–16% annually, doubling in five years to align with India’s Viksit Bharat 2047 vision.Gadkari Targets Sub-9% Logistics Cost &amp; 22 Lakh Cr Auto Industry to Drive $5T EconomyAt the ET World Leaders Forum, Road Transport Minister Nitin Gadkari said India must build world-class infrastructure in water, power, transport, and communication to achieve its $5T economy target. India’s logistics cost has already dropped from 16% to 10% of GDP due to better highways, with a target of 9% by Dec 2025 (vs 8% in China, 12% in US/EU). The ministry is investing in green highways, ropeways, tunnels, and mass rapid transport, while pilots for flash-charging e-buses with 30% lower fares than dieselbegin in Nagpur. With fossil fuel imports at ₹22 lakh crore, India is pushing hydrogen, biofuels, and flex engines to become an energy exporter. The ₹22 lakh cr auto industry(3rd largest globally) is projected to become No. 1 in five years, boosting jobs, revenues, and exports. On sustainability, roads now use 80 lakh tonnes of municipal waste, bamboo crash barriers, and eco-tech, though challenges remain with 5 lakh road accidents and 1.8 lakh deaths annually (66% youth).&nbsp;

CII unveiled a 250-point “Policies for a Competitive India” roadmap pushing GST expansion, PSE privatisation, a sovereign wealth fund, energy reforms, and climate-linked procurement to fast-track Viksit Bharat 2047. Outbound investments surged 68% YoY to $41.6B in FY25, with ESG integration, new hubs like UAE/Luxembourg, and a 100% jump in GIFT City flows shaping capital strategies. The government is weighing a ₹25,000 Cr Export Promotion Mission to cushion exporters from Trump’s 50% tariff hike, with sub-schemes for credit, compliance, branding, and MSME support. Madhya Pradesh CM Mohan Yadav pitched a growth model built on self-reliance, fiscal discipline, ₹66K Cr exports, and a 15% budget expansion trajectory. Nitin Gadkari set a 2025 target to cut logistics costs below 9% of GDP and expand India’s auto industry to ₹22 Lakh Cr, stressing green fuels, biofuels, and infra upgrades as drivers of a $5T economy.

Sovrenn Times: Macroeconomy Update | 25 Aug 2025

Centre Sets Up Two High-Powered Reform Panels to Drive 2047 Viksit Bharat GoalsThe Centre has constituted two reform panels led by Rajiv Gauba, former Cabinet Secretary and current NITI Aayog member, to spearhead next-generation reforms.One panel will focus on Viksit Bharat 2047 targets, while the other will drive non-financial regulatory reforms across sectors. A parallel committee chaired by Cabinet Secretary T.V.S. Swaminathan will work on state-level deregulation. The panels, which include secretaries of DPIIT, Expenditure, MSME, and Power, also feature industry bodies CII, FICCI, Assocham. Private-sector leaders like Pawan Goenka, Manish Sabharwal, and BCG India Chair Janmejay Sinha are also part of the groups. These moves follow PM Modi’s Independence Day call for next-gen reforms and will coordinate with informal ministerial panels led by Amit Shah and Rajnath Singh.Finding multi-bagger stocks is essential for building wealth. Discover potential multi-baggers at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/discovery">Sovrenn Discovery.</a>RBI Opens Review of 4% Inflation Target; Seeks Views on AlternativesThe Reserve Bank of India has launched a review of its 4% consumer inflation mandate, in place since 2016, inviting public comments by September 18. While acknowledging its success in disinflation, the RBI is weighing alternative benchmarks, including core inflation (excluding food and fuel) and changes to the ±2% tolerance band. The review comes ahead of the second reset of the monetary policy framework, due in March 2026, under the amended RBI Act of 1934. Debate persists: some economists call for raising the target to 6% to ease growth costs, while others warn such a move could erode policy credibility. The RBI cautioned that lowering the target amid global food price risks, climate change, and supply chain shocks may not be credible. Headline vs. core inflation remains at the heart of the debate, with food’s high weight in India’s basket making exclusion contentious.GST 2-Slab Overhaul Cleared: 5%, 18% and 40% for Sin GoodsIndia is set to move to a simplified 2-slab GST structure of 5% and 18%, with a special 40% levy for sin and luxury goods, as the GoM on rate rationalisation cleared the Centre’s proposal unanimously. The reform abolishes the 12% and 28% slabs, with all states agreeing to place ultra-luxury cars and high-end products in the 40% category. The GST Council is likely to meet in early September, ahead of Diwali, for early implementation of this reform. However, states raised concerns over revenue losses, with an SBI report estimating Rs 85,000 crore annual hit to the exchequer. States such as West Bengal and Telangana pushed for a safeguard mechanism, including higher levies on luxury goods to compensate for the loss. The reform, announced by PM Modi as a “Diwali gift,” is expected to lower prices, boost consumption, and aid growth, but revenue-sharing tensions remain unresolved.India’s Exports to China Surge 20% in FY26India’s goods exports to China rose 20% year-on-year to $5.76 billion (₹50,112 crore) in the first four months of FY26, with every month recording stronger shipments than last year. Exports peaked in May at $1.63 billion, while April, June, and July also showed double-digit growth. The rise was powered by petroleum products (up nearly 2x to $883 million), electronics (up over 3x to $521 million), and steady gains in chemicals (+16.3%)and gems &amp; jewellery (+72.7%). The trend highlights India’s improving competitiveness despite global trade uncertainty and signals a gradual rebalancing of its $99.2 billion trade deficit with China, where imports are dominated by pharmaceuticals, electronics, machinery, and industrial goods.Investing has built enormous wealth for several HNI investors. Learn investing for FREE OUSARGE at&nbsp;Sovereign<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/education"> Educatio</a>n.India Buys 1/5th of Russia’s War-Time Oil ExportsSince the Ukraine war began in 2022, India has purchased ₹132 billion worth of Russian oil, accounting for 20% of Moscow’s total oil export earnings of ₹640 billion, according to CREA. Adding coal imports of ₹16 billion, India’s total fossil fuel imports from Russia stood at ₹148 billion, making it the third-largest buyer globally after China (₹268B) and the EU (₹213B). While India trails China’s oil imports of ₹193B, it surpasses the EU’s ₹105B and Turkiye’s ₹71B. Russia earned a total of ₹931 billion from fossil fuel exports (oil, gas, coal combined), with India contributing 16% of the total. Despite Western criticism that India and China are “bankrolling” Moscow, data shows the EU itself accounted for nearly 23% of Russia’s fossil fuel revenues. The U.S., however, has escalated pressure by imposing a 25% penalty on Indian Russian oil imports effective August 27, 2025, which India has rejected as “unjustified.”

The Centre has set up two high-powered reform panels under Rajiv Gauba and T.V.S. Swaminathan to push next-gen deregulation and Viksit Bharat 2047 goals, with industry leaders like CII, FICCI, and BCG on board. The RBI has opened a review of its 4% inflation mandate ahead of the 2026 reset, weighing alternatives like core inflation and a wider tolerance band amid debate on growth vs. credibility. India’s GST regime will be overhauled into a two-slab structure (5% and 18%) with a 40% sin-goods rate, though states flagged a potential ₹85,000 Cr revenue hit. Exports to China surged 20% YoY to $5.76B in April–July FY26, led by petroleum, electronics, and jewellery, hinting at gradual trade balance correction. Meanwhile, India bought ₹132B worth of Russian oil since 2022—20% of Moscow’s war-time exports—drawing US pressure even as data shows the EU remains a larger fossil-fuel funder of Russia.

Sovrenn Times: Macroeconomy Update | 22 Aug 2025

India–Russia Trade Stays Strong at $65 Bn as Moscow Offers Market Access Amid US TariffsRussia has offered to increase imports from India if Indian goods face hurdles in the US due to new tariff policies. India–Russia trade hit $65 Bn in FY24, with crude oil making up the bulk as Russia is India’s largest oil supplier. Despite Western sanctions, discounted Russian crude has kept India’s import levels stable. Roman Babushkin, Charge d’Affairs of the Russian Embassy in India, called US pressure on India’s oil purchases “unjustified and unilateral.” He added that sanctions hurt those imposing them more than Russia. Highlighting “trust” in India–Russia ties, he said Moscow would welcome Indian exports while ensuring energy cooperation continues undisturbed.Finding multi-bagger stocks is essential for building wealth. Discover potential multi-baggers at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/discovery">Sovrenn Discovery.</a>RBI Pushes Principle-Based Regulations to Strengthen $4 Tn Financial SystemThe Reserve Bank of India is shifting towards principle and outcome-based regulations, Deputy Governor M Rajeshwar Rao said at IIM Kozhikode. This approach aims to give India’s regulated entities (REs) greater flexibility while maintaining systemic stability. Rao stressed the need for forward-looking supervision through technology, horizon risk scanning, and regulatory innovation. The RBI is simplifying compliance by adding FAQs and examples in its regulatory guidelines. Consumer protection remains central, with policies designed to safeguard over 1.3 Bn Indians dependent on the financial system. Rao warned that striking the right balance is crucial: overregulation risks stifling innovation, while lax oversight risks instability.India’s Textile Exports Rise 5.37% YoY to $3.1 Bn in July 2025; Cumulative April–July Up 3.87%India’s textile exports showed resilience in July 2025, growing 5.37% YoY to $3.10 Bncompared to $2.94 Bn last year, despite global uncertainties. Cumulative exports for April–July 2025 reached $12.18 Bn, up 3.87% from $11.73 Bn a year ago, according to DGCIS data. Ready-made garments led the surge, clocking $1.34 Bn in July (4.75% growth) and $5.53 Bn cumulatively (7.87% growth). Other drivers included strong demand in jute, carpets, and handicrafts, showcasing the sector’s diversified strengths. The performance highlights India’s robust textile base, spanning cotton, MMF-based fabrics, and eco-friendly traditional products. The ministry reaffirmed that the sector remains a key driver of jobs, exports, and economic growth, even in mixed global trade conditions.PSBs Post Record Q1 FY26 Profit of ₹44,218 Cr, Up 11% YoY; SBI Alone Contributes 43%India’s 12 public sector banks (PSBs) posted a record Q1 FY26 profit of ₹44,218 Cr, registering 11% YoY growth from ₹39,974 Cr in Q1 FY25. SBI led the pack, contributing ₹19,160 Cr, or 43% of total PSB earnings, marking a 12% profit rise YoY. In percentage terms, Indian Overseas Bank topped the growth chart with 76% profit surge to ₹1,111 Cr, followed by Punjab &amp; Sind Bank with 48% rise to ₹269 Cr. However, PNB bucked the trend, reporting a 48% decline in net profit to ₹1,675 Cr from ₹3,252 Cr a year ago.Other strong performers included Central Bank of India (32.8% growth), Indian Bank (23.7%), and Bank of Maharashtra (23.2%). The finance ministry has urged PSBs to channel higher lending towards the productive sectors of the economy, reinforcing growth momentum.Investing has built enormous wealth for several HNI investors. Learn investing for FREE OUSARGE at&nbsp;Sovereign<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/education"> Educatio</a>n.India Pushes Back on US Tariffs as Ambassador Engages US Lawmakers on Trade &amp; EnergyIndia’s Ambassador to the US, Vinay Mohan Kwatra, met multiple US Congress members this week including Warren Davidson, Pete Sessions, Marc Veasey, and Michael Baumgartner to brief them on India’s stance on trade and energy. The outreach comes after President Trump’s 50% tariffs on Indian goods, including a 25% levy on Russian oil purchases, set to take effect August 27. Kwatra underlined India’s need for fair and balanced trade, while stressing the growing hydrocarbon partnership between New Delhi and Washington. In talks with Davidson, India sought support amid tariff tensions; with Sessions and Veasey, discussions highlighted energy security and equitable trade frameworks. New Delhi has termed the tariffs “unjustified and unreasonable” and signaled it will safeguard its economic interests. Meanwhile, Russia’s envoy said Moscow has a “special mechanism” to support India if US punitive measures disrupt its crude imports.&nbsp;

India–Russia trade held steady at $65B in FY24, with Moscow offering greater market access for Indian goods hit by US tariffs, as discounted Russian crude remains central to bilateral ties. The RBI is moving toward principle- and outcome-based regulations to strengthen India’s $4T financial system, aiming for simpler compliance and forward-looking supervision. Textile exports grew 5.37% YoY to $3.1B in July, led by ready-made garments, with April–July shipments up 3.87% despite global headwinds. Public sector banks posted record Q1 FY26 profits of ₹44,218 Cr (+11% YoY), with SBI alone contributing 43%, though PNB reported a sharp decline. Meanwhile, India’s US ambassador Vinay Kwatra lobbied US lawmakers against Trump’s 50% tariffs, stressing energy security and balanced trade, as Russia pledged backup support for crude supplies.

Sovrenn Times: Macroeconomy Update | 21 Aug 2025

India’s Core Sector Output Grows 2% in July 2025, Led by Steel &amp; CementIndia’s core sector output rose 2% YoY in July 2025, with strong growth in steel (+12.8%)and cement (+11.7%), according to government data. This marks the 12th straight month of steel production growth. The fertiliser industry rebounded with 2% growth after three months of contraction, while electricity generation rose 0.5%. The overall index for June was revised upward to 2.2% from 1.7%. However, coal (-12.3%), crude oil (-1.3%), natural gas (-3.2%), and refinery products (-1.0%) dragged performance, reflecting persistent weakness in fossil-fuel-linked sectors. The eight core industries—coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertilizers, steel, cement, and electricity—together account for 40.3% of India’s IIP (Index of Industrial Production).Finding multi-bagger stocks is essential for building wealth. Discover potential multi-baggers at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/discovery">Sovrenn Discovery.</a>India’s Non-Smartphone Electronics Exports Cross $14 Bn, Push Overall Electronics Exports to $38.6 Bn in FY25India’s electronics exports jumped 32.5% YoY to $38.57 bn in FY25, with non-smartphone categories contributing $14 bn+, according to ESC. Electronics now form 9% of total merchandise exports, up from 6.7% last year. Solar panels ($1.12 bn), telecom equipment ($1.4 bn), rectifiers &amp; inverters ($2.5 bn+), PCs &amp; digital units ($0.81 bn), and medical electronics ($0.4 bn) drove the surge. Tamil Nadu ($14.65 bn), Karnataka ($7.8 bn), and Uttar Pradesh ($5.26 bn) led state-wise exports, reflecting strong regional ecosystems. The momentum aligns with India’s semiconductor push, with ₹1.18 lakh cr+ in new projects, including Tata’s ₹91,000 cr fab and Micron’s ₹22,516 cr ATMP unit. ESC said this milestone reflects PLI schemes, duty rationalisation, and skilling, positioning India on track for its $200 bn electronics export target by 2030.50% Less Plastic, 100% Renewable Energy: FMCG &amp; Retail Leaders Call for Sustainable PLI and Global FTAs to Make India a Manufacturing HubAt FICCI’s 14th Massmerize Conference, leaders from FMCG, retail, and e-commercecalled for expanding India’s FTAs to secure cost advantages and preferential access in key markets. Mayank Mohan of Mohanlal Sons highlighted that Bangladesh and Vietnam export more textiles than India, stressing that FTAs with the UK and US could bridge the gap. Speakers urged extending the PLI scheme to sustainable fabrics and quality manufacturing, warning against incentivising low-quality output. L’Oréal India MD Aseem Kaushik showcased sustainability moves—refillable fragrance bottles cutting material use by 50%, plastic neutrality, and renewable energy-powered plants. Executives from Marico, ChrysCapital, and Piramal agreed India’s domestic demand + global supply chain shifts present a rare chance to emerge as a competitive manufacturing hub.Investing has built enormous wealth for several HNI investors. Learn investing for FREE OUSARGE at&nbsp;Sovereign<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/education"> Educatio</a>n.CRISIL Warns: 70% MSME-Dominated Sectors Face Severe Hit from US Tariff SurgeThe US has doubled tariffs on Indian goods to 50% (from 25%), effective August 27, 2025, a CRISIL report warned. MSMEs responsible for 45% of India’s exports—will take the hardest blow, especially in textiles, gems &amp; jewellery, and chemicals, where their share exceeds 70%. Textiles and gems &amp; jewellery, together making up 25% of India’s exports to the US, are most exposed. Surat’s diamond exporters—with the US as their top buyer—face the sharpest pain. Chemicals, where MSMEs hold a 40% share, also risk losing ground to Japan and South Korea, who enjoy lower tariffs. Steel MSMEs are relatively shielded since the US mainly imports flat products, while Indian MSMEs focus on re-rolling and long products. Ready-made garments could lose competitiveness against Bangladesh and Vietnam, which continue to face lower US tariffs.Mudra NPAs Surge to 9.8% of Outstanding Loans by March 2025The Non-Performing Asset (NPA) ratio under the Pradhan Mantri Mudra Yojana (PMMY) rose sharply to 9.81% of outstanding loans as of March 2025, compared to 5.47% in March 2018. In contrast, NPAs against the amount disbursed declined to 2.19%, down from 2.71% in 2018. The broader MSME sector’s NPAs stood at 3.60%, highlighting the relatively higher stress within Mudra loans. The scheme’s focus on collateral-free loans to first-time entrepreneurs has contributed to elevated defaults. To counter risks, the government is strengthening the framework through credit guarantees, simplified processes, and tighter monitoring. Despite the challenges, PMMY remains a crucial tool for financial inclusion and entrepreneurship support.&nbsp;

India’s core sector output grew 2% YoY in July 2025, driven by double-digit gains in steel and cement, though coal and crude oil dragged momentum. Electronics exports surged 32.5% to $38.6 bn in FY25, with non-smartphone segments crossing $14 bn, led by solar panels, telecom gear, and medical electronics. FMCG and retail leaders at FICCI urged sustainable PLI support and FTAs to boost competitiveness, citing rivals like Bangladesh and Vietnam. CRISIL warned that the US tariff hike to 50% will severely impact MSME-heavy sectors like textiles, gems, and chemicals, which form 70% of India’s export basket. Meanwhile, NPAs under Mudra loans hit 9.8% of outstanding credit, underscoring stress in collateral-free lending despite declining defaults on disbursed amounts.

Sovrenn Times: Macroeconomy Update | 20 Aug 2025

Debt-to-GDP Falls to 57%, But Interest Outgo Eats 36% of Revenues: CAGIndia’s central government debt eased from 61.38% of GDP in FY21 (pandemic peak) to 57% in FY24, showing slower debt accumulation than GDP growth, according to the CAG’s FRBM compliance report. However, interest payments as a share of revenue receipts have risen steadily, from 33.99% in FY22 to 35.72% in FY24, after peaking at 38.66% in FY21. This ratio, a key gauge of fiscal health, highlights pressure on revenue due to high servicing costs. The report noted that debt sustainability turned positive in FY24, signaling stability despite the heavy interest burden. While debt moderation reflects fiscal discipline, rising interest costs could constrain future spending flexibility. The balance between growth-driven revenue gains and interest obligations remains a critical challenge for fiscal management.Finding multi-bagger stocks is essential for building wealth. Discover potential multi-baggers at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/discovery">Sovrenn Discovery.</a>Unemployment Falls to 5.2% in July 2025, Female Workforce Participation GainsIndia’s unemployment rate eased to 5.2% in July 2025, down from 5.6% in June, as per the latest PLFS data. The Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR) rose to 54.9%, with rural LFPR at 56.9% and urban at 50.7%. Notably, rural female LFPR increased to 36.9% (vs. 35.2% in June), highlighting improving participation. The Worker Population Ratio (WPR)climbed to 54.4% in rural areas and 47% in urban areas, with female WPR at 31.6% nationwide. Rural women saw higher engagement (35.5% WPR) compared to urban women (23.5%). This bulletin marks the fourth monthly PLFS release, tracking shifts in labour dynamics across regions and genders.18% Slab to Remain GST Revenue Backbone as Govt Proposes Two-Tier StructureIndia’s GST revenues remain heavily dependent on the 18% slab, which contributes 65% of total collections, according to official estimates. In contrast, the 5% slab accounts for just 7%, while the 12% and 28% slabs contribute 5% and 11%, respectively. Under the Centre’s proposal, the GST regime will shift to a two-tier structure of 5% (merit goods) and 18% (standard goods), with a special 40% rate on 5–7 luxury/sin items. Nearly 99% of items in the 12% bracket are set to move down to 5%, while 90% of the 28% slab will shift to 18%. The rationalisation aims to boost consumption, simplify tax compliance, and build on the rising GST inflows, with average monthly collections climbing from ₹1.51 lakh crore in FY22 to ₹1.84 lakh crore in FY25. Since its rollout in 2017, GST registrations have more than doubled to 1.51 crore taxpayers.Investing has built enormous wealth for several HNI investors. Learn investing for FREE OUSARGE at&nbsp;Sovereign<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/education"> Educatio</a>n.Farm Incomes at ₹10,218 &amp; Rural Assets at ₹15.9 Lakh Set Benchmark Ahead of 2026 NSS SurveyThe government will launch the 81st round of the National Sample Survey (NSS) in 2026, combining the Situation Assessment Survey of Agricultural Households and the All India Debt &amp; Investment Survey (AIDIS). The exercise, to run from July 2026 to June 2027, will track farm and non-farm receipts, loan access, indebtedness, and asset levels across India. The last survey in 2019 reported average monthly farm household income at ₹10,218, with wages contributing ₹4,063 and crops ₹3,798. AIDIS 2019 pegged average rural assets at ₹15.9 lakh (₹22.1 lakh for cultivators vs ₹7.9 lakh for non-cultivators), while urban households averaged ₹27.2 lakh. Findings will help policymakers assess farmer welfare, rural debt pressures, and investment gaps after seven years. Meanwhile, the 80th NSS round on health expenditure is currently underway.IBC Amendment Narrows NCLT Discretion, Aligns with SC RulingsThe Centre has proposed amendments to the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) to remove ambiguities highlighted in recent Supreme Court judgments. The bill clarifies that proof of default alone will be sufficient for insolvency admission under Section 7, curbing NCLT’s discretionary power, as raised in the Vidarbha Industries case (2022). It also addresses the Rainbow Papers ruling (2023) by reaffirming that government dues rank below secured creditors in the IBC waterfall. Further, in line with the Byju’s case, withdrawal of insolvency applications will not be allowed post-admission until the CoC is formed. Timelines for admission and resolution plan approval have also been prescribed to improve efficiency. By tightening definitions and procedures, the bill seeks to reinforce IBC’s intent of speedy, predictable, and creditor-friendly resolution.&nbsp;

India’s debt-to-GDP fell to 57% in FY24 from the pandemic peak of 61.4%, but interest outgo still absorbed 36% of revenues, limiting fiscal space, per the CAG. Unemployment dropped to 5.2% in July 2025, with rural female workforce participation climbing to 36.9%, reflecting stronger labour engagement. The Centre confirmed GST rationalisation to a two-tier structure, with the 18% slab—already contributing 65% of collections—remaining the system’s backbone. Ahead of the 2026 NSS survey, benchmarks put average monthly farm income at ₹10,218 and rural assets at ₹15.9 lakh, setting the stage for a fresh assessment of rural debt and welfare. The proposed IBC amendment curbs NCLT discretion, prioritises secured creditors over government dues, and prescribes stricter timelines to align with Supreme Court rulings and reinforce faster, predictable insolvency resolution.

Sovrenn Times: Macroeconomy Update | 19 August 2025

India Bets on Growth to Keep Fiscal Deficit at 4.4% Despite GST OverhaulIndia is targeting a fiscal deficit of 4.4% of GDP in FY26, even as it implements the biggest GST reform since 2017, lowering rates on essentials and electronics to ease consumer costs. While these cuts may initially weigh on revenues, the government expects higher consumption and tax buoyancy to bridge the gap. Officials also confirmed that the GST compensation cess will end by December 2025, removing a temporary but significant revenue source from automobiles, tobacco, and luxury goods. Despite this, policymakers remain confident of meeting fiscal targets by relying on growth-led revenues and improved compliance. The fiscal strategy signals a balance between short-term consumer relief and long-term fiscal discipline.Finding multi-bagger stocks is essential for building wealth. Discover potential multi-baggers at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/discovery">Sovrenn Discovery.</a>PSBs Post Record ₹44,218 Cr Profit in Q1; Govt to Review Performance on Aug 20India’s finance ministry has called a review meeting of public sector banks (PSBs) on August 20, chaired by Financial Services Secretary M Nagaraju, to assess Q1 FY26 results. Collectively, the 12 PSBs reported record profits of ₹44,218 Cr, up 11% YoY from ₹39,974 Cr in Q1 FY25. SBI led the surge, contributing 43% of total profits with ₹19,160 Cr, a 12% rise. In growth terms, Indian Overseas Bank posted the highest jump (76%), followed by Punjab &amp; Sind Bank (48%). On the other hand, PNB saw profits fall 48% YoY to ₹1,675 Cr, the only PSB to report a decline. Other banks like Central Bank (+32.8%), Indian Bank (+23.7%), and Bank of Maharashtra (+23.2%) also contributed to the sector’s strong showing.GST 2.0: ₹1.8 Lakh Cr Monthly Collections Pave Way for 2-Slab ReformEight years after GST’s rollout, India is moving toward “next generation reforms” that simplify the tax structure and spur consumption. With average monthly collections of ₹1.8 lakh crore in FY25 and a tax base exceeding 1.5 crore taxpayers, the system is financially stable enough for rationalisation. The government plans to reduce the current four slabs (5%, 12%, 18%, 28%) into just two—5% and 18%, while keeping sin goods at 40%. This means household staples under 12% may drop to 5%, and big-ticket items like cement and cars under 28% may move to 18%. Since over 70% of GST revenue already comes from the 18% bracket, revenue impact is expected to be limited. The streamlined structure is set to lower classification disputes, minimise inverted duty issues, and ensure consumers benefit directly from reduced rates.S&amp;P Upgrades 10 Indian Financial Institutions After Sovereign Rating BoostS&amp;P Global Ratings has upgraded seven Indian banks and three finance companiesfollowing India’s first sovereign credit rating upgrade in 18 years, from BBB-/Positive to BBB/Stable. The move reflects confidence in India’s sound economic fundamentals, with GDP growth averaging 8.8% during FY22–24, the highest in Asia-Pacific, and projected at 6.8% annually over the next three years. Asset quality improvements, stronger profitability, and capitalisation underpin the upgrades, aided by structural reforms like the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC), which cut resolution times for bad loans from 6–8 years to under 2 years and lifted recovery rates above 30% (vs. 15–20% earlier). SBI remains the largest beneficiary, while systemic credit risk continues to decline. S&amp;P expects Indian banks and NBFCs to sustain resilience despite pockets of stress, supported by domestic focus, recovery mechanisms, and favourable monetary conditions.Investing has built enormous wealth for several HNI investors. Learn investing for FREE OUSARGE at&nbsp;Sovereign<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/education"> Educatio</a>n.₹24,000 Cr PM Dhan-Dhanya Krishi Yojana Targets 100 Lagging Farm DistrictsIn his longest Independence Day address, Prime Minister Modi announced the rollout of the ₹24,000 crore PM Dhan-Dhanya Krishi Yojana, aimed at transforming 100 underperforming agricultural districts. The scheme will boost productivity, promote crop diversification, expand irrigation and storage, and improve credit access for farmers. Modi highlighted that farmers have already benefited from initiatives like PM Kisan Samman Nidhi, irrigation projects, and quality seed distribution, while 125 crore livestock vaccinations have been administered to fight foot-and-mouth disease. India today ranks 1st in milk, pulses, and jute production, and 2nd in rice, wheat, cotton, fruits, and vegetables, underscoring its role as a global agri-powerhouse. Agricultural exports have also surged past ₹4 lakh crore, strengthening food sovereignty. Modi called farmers the backbone of India’s journey from dependency to self-reliance.&nbsp;

India is targeting a 4.4% fiscal deficit in FY26 despite GST rate cuts on essentials and electronics, betting on growth and compliance to offset revenue loss as the GST compensation cess ends in Dec 2025. Public sector banks posted record Q1 FY26 profits of ₹44,218 Cr, led by SBI’s ₹19,160 Cr, with most lenders seeing double-digit growth except PNB. GST 2.0 reforms are in motion, with monthly collections at ₹1.8 Lakh Cr paving the way for a simplified two-slab structure (5% and 18%). S&P upgraded 10 Indian financial institutions after the sovereign rating boost, citing improved asset quality, profitability, and faster IBC resolutions. PM Modi announced the ₹24,000 Cr PM Dhan-Dhanya Krishi Yojana to uplift 100 lagging farm districts through productivity, irrigation, and credit support, reinforcing India’s global agri-leadership.

Sovrenn Times: Macroeconomy Update | 18 August 2025

India’s July WPI Contracts to -0.58%, Retail Inflation Hits 8-Year Low at 1.55%India’s wholesale inflation slipped to -0.58% in July from -0.13% in June, marking the longest disinflation streak in over a decade. This was below economists’ forecast of -0.30%, aided by a strong spring harvest that offset uneven monsoon effects on food prices. Retail inflation also plunged to 1.55% in July &nbsp;the lowest since June 2017 and the first reading in over six years below the RBI’s 2–6% comfort band. The RBI now projects FY26 headline inflation at 3.1% (down from 3.7% earlier) with quarterly estimates of 2.1% (Q2), 3.1% (Q3), and 4.4% (Q4). CPI is expected to climb to 4.9% in Q1 FY27, above the central bank’s 4% target, as volatile food prices, especially for vegetables, may push inflation higher. Core inflation remains steady at 4%, with the RBI calling risks to the outlook “evenly balanced.”Finding multi-bagger stocks is essential for building wealth. Discover potential multi-baggers at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/discovery">Sovrenn Discovery.</a>RBI Steps Up Forex Market Interventions; $9.3 Bn Reserve Dip Signals $5–6 Bn NDF SalesIndia’s forex reserves fell by $9.3 Bn to $688 Bn as of August 1 — the sharpest drop in eight months &nbsp;reflecting the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) likely intervention to curb rupee volatility. Treasury officials estimate the central bank sold $5–6 Bn in the offshore non-deliverable forwards (NDF) market over the past fortnight, with notable trades around 9 AM ahead of Mumbai’s market open. The rupee, which has weakened 2.4% YTD to 87.71/$1, nearly touched its all-time low before these actions, aimed at limiting imported inflation risks. This marks a shift after minimal interventions since December 2024, as the RBI also sold dollars in the onshore spot market. Experts anticipate another week of reserve declines and a rise in short forward positions for August.RBI Panel Charts 26-Point AI Roadmap for Financial SectorThe Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) AI committee has issued a framework urging regulated entities to adopt board-approved AI policies and calling on regulators to foster AI innovations that advance financial inclusion, especially for underserved communities. The eight-member panel, chaired by IIT Bombay’s Pushpak Bhattacharyya, proposed 26 actionable recommendations under six strategic pillars, guided by seven “Sutras” trust, people-first, innovation, fairness, accountability, understandable design, and safety. Key proposals include a consolidated RBI AI guidance document, a permanent multi-stakeholder AI standing committee, and AI-specific provisions in product approvals, consumer protection, and audits. Formed following the RBI’s December 2024 policy announcement, the panel aims to strike a balance between innovation and risk mitigation in the financial ecosystem.FX Reserves Likely Rose $4B in Week to Aug 8 on $9.8B Revaluation BoostIndia’s foreign exchange reserves are estimated to have increased by over $4 billion in the week to August 8, despite a $5 billion dollar/rupee swap maturity and RBI interventions to defend the rupee from breaching its 87.95/$ all-time low after fresh US tariffs. According to IDFC First Bank’s Gaura Sen Gupta, a $9.8 billion revaluation gain from higher gold prices and a weaker dollar offset the reserves drain from interventions. The RBI’s net dollar sales totaled $5.6 billion that week &nbsp;largely from the swap maturity — with limited spot market activity, indicating heavier reliance on offshore non-deliverable forward (NDF) operations. Official figures will be released on Friday.Investing has built enormous wealth for several HNI investors. Learn investing for FREE OUSARGE at&nbsp;Sovereign<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/education"> Educatio</a>n.India Moves Towards Service Sector Index on Lines of IIPThe Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) has initiated steps to create an Index of Service Production (ISP), modelled on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), using data from the Annual Survey of Services Sector Enterprises (ASSSE). At a brainstorming session chaired by MoSPI Secretary Dr Saurabh Garg, officials, economists, and industry bodies discussed sectoral coverage, sampling frameworks, and findings from a recent pilot study. The services sector, a key driver of value addition, FDI, exports, and employment, will be mapped more accurately through this index. The ASSSE will leverage GSTN data and align with global best practices, while a forthcoming Statistical Business Register (SBR) will provide granular district- and state-level business data for sentiment surveys and policy planning.&nbsp;

India’s WPI fell to -0.58% in July while CPI plunged to an 8-year low of 1.55%, prompting the RBI to cut its FY26 inflation forecast to 3.1% though risks remain from volatile food prices. Forex reserves dropped $9.3B as the RBI intervened in offshore NDF markets to stem rupee weakness, with further declines expected; however, reserves likely rose $4B the following week on a $9.8B revaluation boost. An RBI panel released a 26-point AI roadmap urging board-approved policies, AI-specific regulation, and a multi-stakeholder standing committee to balance innovation with risk. Meanwhile, MoSPI has begun work on an Index of Service Production (ISP), modelled on the IIP, to better capture services sector growth using GSTN and survey data.

Sovrenn Times: Macroeconomy Update | 14 August 2025

India’s 13-Fold Surge in DDGS Output Threatens $17 Bn Edible Oil Import Reduction GoalIndia’s ethanol push has driven DDGS production to an estimated 5.5 Mn tonnes in 2025, a 13-fold jump in just two years prompting feed makers to replace costlier oilmeals, depressing oilseed prices, and driving farmers away from soybeans and groundnuts toward record-high corn planting. As of August 8, oilseed acreage was down 4% YoY while corn jumped 10.5%. The shift jeopardises New Delhi’s target to boost edible oil output from 12.7 Mn tonnes to 25.45 Mn tonnes by 2030-31, reducing import reliance from the current 16 Mn tonnes that cost $17 Bn annually. Traders warn imports could top 20 Mn tonnes within 6-7 years, pushing global prices higher amid tightening supplies, while domestic oilmeal and DDGS surpluses strain export markets already turning to U.S. suppliers.Lok Sabha Passes Overhauled Income Tax Bill; LLP AMT Scrapped, Late Refund Claims AllowedThe Lok Sabha has cleared the Income Tax (No.2) Bill, set to replace the 1961 Act from next fiscal year, cutting chapters nearly in half and introducing a simplified “tax year” concept. Key reforms include removal of Alternate Minimum Tax on LLPs, permission for refund claims even if returns are filed after the due date, and exemptions for anonymous donations received by purely religious trusts. The bill aligns MSME definitions with the MSME Act, reintroduces certain inter-corporate dividend deductions, and exempts LRS remittances for education (via financial institutions) from TCS. Professionals with income above ₹50 Cr annually must now adopt prescribed e-payment modes. Experts say the revised draft, which incorporates almost all Select Committee recommendations, addresses pain points by easing compliance, improving clarity, and relaxing provisions on charitable trusts, transfer pricing, and associated enterprise definitions.Finding multi-bagger stocks is essential for building wealth. Discover potential multi-baggers at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/discovery">Sovrenn Discovery.</a>India Bans $2 Bn Jute Imports from Bangladesh via Land Routes, Bilateral Trade at $12.9 BnIndia has extended its ban on several jute products from Bangladesh through all land ports, now covering bleached/unbleached woven fabrics, jute twine and rope, and jute sacks, though imports remain permitted via Nhava Sheva Seaport. This follows earlier restrictions in April, May, and June on various jute and bast fibre products, ready-made garments, and processed foods, alongside the withdrawal of transhipment facilities for most exports. The measures come amid escalating diplomatic tensions after controversial remarks by Bangladesh’s interim leader Muhammad Yunus and concerns over attacks on minorities. With bilateral trade at USD 12.9 Bn in 2023-24 India exporting USD 11.46 Bn and importing USD 2 Bn the ban targets a sector where Bangladesh is a key competitor to India’s textile industry.&nbsp;India to Roll Out ₹40 Bn Credit Guarantee Scheme for SMEs &amp; Exporters Hit by US Tariffs The Centre plans to offer 10–15% credit guarantees for loans overdue up to 90 days, targeting small businesses with turnover up to ₹5 Bn and exporters impacted by US tariffs. Around ₹40 Bn will be allocated, with eligibility covering stressed firms under RBI’s SMA-0 to SMA-2 category that are not yet NPAs. About 55% of Indian merchandise exports to the US face new tariffs, prompting additional plans for term loans to small exporters backed by 70–75% government guarantees.Investing has built enormous wealth for several HNI investors. Learn investing for FREE OUSARGE at&nbsp;Sovereign<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/education"> Educatio</a>n.Paddy Sowing Up 12% This Kharif; Overall Crop Acreage Nears 1,000 Lakh HectaresPaddy sowing has reached 364.80 lakh hectares this kharif season, 12% higher than last year’s 325.36 lakh hectares, as per Agriculture Ministry data till August 8. Total kharif crop coverage rose to 995.63 lakh hectares from 957.15 lakh hectares a year ago. Pulses acreage was steady at 106.68 lakh hectares, while coarse cereals expanded to 178.73 lakh hectares. Oilseed planting fell to 175.61 lakh hectares, and cotton declined to 106.96 lakh hectares. Sugarcane saw a slight rise to 57.31 lakh hectares. The IMD projects an above-normal monsoon for 2025.&nbsp;&nbsp;

India’s ethanol-driven surge in DDGS output (5.5 Mn tonnes, up 13x in two years) is displacing oilmeals, depressing oilseed planting, and threatening the $17 Bn edible oil import reduction target. The Lok Sabha passed the Income Tax (No.2) Bill to replace the 1961 Act, scrapping LLP AMT, easing refund claims, aligning MSME definitions, and simplifying compliance. India extended its ban on $2 Bn worth of jute imports from Bangladesh via land ports, escalating trade and diplomatic tensions while protecting domestic textiles. The Centre will roll out a ₹40 Bn credit guarantee scheme for SMEs and exporters hit by US tariffs, covering stressed loans with partial guarantees. Meanwhile, kharif sowing reached nearly 1,000 Lakh hectares, with paddy acreage up 12%, though oilseeds and cotton saw declines.

Sovrenn Times: Macroeconomy Update | 12 August 2025

Karnataka GST Evasion Surges 5x to ₹39,577 Crore in FY25Central GST officers in Karnataka uncovered ₹39,577 crore worth of tax evasion in FY25, marking a more than fivefold increase from ₹7,202 crore in FY24. According to Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s reply in the Lok Sabha, 1,254 cases were detected, nine arrests made, and ₹1,623 crore recovered through voluntary payments.While the minister clarified that no CGST notices were issued based on UPI transactions, local reports indicate several small traders in Bengaluru received high-value GST notices from State GST offices based on digital payment footprints. In comparison, FY24 saw 925 cases with only two arrests, and FY23 recorded ₹25,839 crore in evasion across 959 cases.₹3,200 Crore First Installment Released Under PMFBY to Aid 30 Lakh Disaster-Hit FarmersThe Centre has disbursed ₹3,200 crore as the first installment under the Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY) to around 30 lakh farmers impacted by natural disasters, with an additional ₹8,000 crore to follow. Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan warned that insurance firms delaying payouts will incur a 12% interest penalty payable directly to farmers. Launched in 2016 and marking its ninth anniversary this year, PMFBY covers crop losses from calamities like droughts, floods, and pests, and has seen non-loanee farmer participation rise to 55% in FY24. The scheme, extended till 2025-26 with a ₹69,515.71 crore budget, aims to stabilise farmer incomes and promote modern agricultural practices.Finding multi-bagger stocks is essential for building wealth. Discover potential multi-baggers at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/discovery">Sovrenn Discovery.</a>Govt Sells Tomatoes at ₹47–60/kg in Delhi to Curb Monsoon Price SpikeThe Centre has fixed subsidised retail prices for tomatoes in Delhi at ₹47–60/kg through the NCCF to ease buyer pressure after rains pushed prices up to ₹85/kg in late July. Since August 4, NCCF has sold over 27,300 kg via outlets and mobile vans, with prices reflecting procurement costs. Delhi’s average price now stands at ₹73/kg, higher than Chennai (₹50) and Mumbai (₹58), due to weather-related supply disruptions. The all-India average retail price is ₹52/kg, below last year’s ₹54 and far from the 2023 spike of ₹136. Potato and onion prices remain steady, with a 3 lakh tonne onion buffer set for release from September, supporting the government’s broader food inflation moderation efforts.Govt Expands Export Push to 50 Nations Amid US Tariff HitAmid steep US tariffs on Indian goods, the government is widening its export strategy to target 50 countries — up from 20 — across regions like the Middle East and Africa, which together account for 90% of India’s exports. The commerce ministry is working on four pillars: export diversification, import substitution, and boosting competitiveness, with a product-by-product analysis underway. India’s exports were flat at $35.14 billion in June, while the April–June period saw a modest 1.92% rise to $112.17 billion. Imports grew 4.24% to $179.44 billion, narrowing the trade deficit to a four-month low of $18.78 billion.Investing has built enormous wealth for several HNI investors. Learn investing for FREE OUSARGE at&nbsp;Sovereign<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/education"> Educatio</a>n.Revised Income Tax Bill 2025 Streamlines 536 Sections, Incorporates Key Panel RecommendationsFinance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has tabled a revised Income Tax Bill in the Lok Sabha, replacing the withdrawn February draft to incorporate recommendations from the Baijayant Panda-led Select Committee. The updated version retains 23 chapters, 536 sections, and 16 schedules but corrects drafting errors and clarifies provisions — such as specifying the 30% house property deduction post municipal taxes, extending pre-construction interest benefits to let-out properties, and ensuring clarity on “deemed rent” calculations. The bill continues with simplified language, consolidated deductions, unchanged tax slabs, and a “trust first, scrutinise later” compliance model, aiming to replace the six-decade-old Income-Tax Act, 1961 without altering the core framework.&nbsp;&nbsp;

Karnataka reported a fivefold jump in GST evasion to ₹39,577 Cr in FY25, with 1,254 cases detected and nine arrests, though recovery stood at ₹1,623 Cr. The Centre released ₹3,200 Cr under PMFBY’s first installment to aid 30 lakh farmers hit by natural disasters, warning insurers against payout delays. To curb monsoon-driven spikes, subsidised tomato sales in Delhi were fixed at ₹47–60/kg, easing prices from ₹85 while onion and potato prices remain stable. Facing steep US tariffs, India expanded its export push to 50 nations, focusing on diversification and competitiveness as June exports stayed flat. Meanwhile, the revised Income Tax Bill 2025 was tabled with 536 sections, simplified language, and key clarifications, aiming to modernise the 1961 Act without altering core slabs or deductions.

Date	Title
Sep 13th 25	Sovrenn Times: Macroeconomy Update \| 09 Sep 2025
Sep 13th 25	Sovrenn Times: Macroeconomy Update \| 08 Sep 2025
Sep 13th 25	Sovrenn Times: Macroeconomy Update \| 05 Sep 2025
Sep 13th 25	Sovrenn Times: Macroeconomy Update \| 04 Sep 2025
Sep 13th 25	Sovrenn Times: Macroeconomy Update \| 03 Sep 2025
Sep 13th 25	Sovrenn Times: Macroeconomy Update \| 02 Sep 2025
Sep 13th 25	Sovrenn Times: Macroeconomy Update \| 1 Sep 2025
Sep 13th 25	Sovrenn Times: Macroeconomy Update \| 29 August 2025
Sep 13th 25	Sovrenn Times: Macroeconomy Update \| 28 August 2025
Sep 13th 25	Sovrenn Times: Macroeconomy Update \| 27 Aug 2025
Sep 13th 25	Sovrenn Times: Macroeconomy Update \| 26 Aug 2025
Sep 13th 25	Sovrenn Times: Macroeconomy Update \| 25 Aug 2025
Sep 13th 25	Sovrenn Times: Macroeconomy Update \| 22 Aug 2025
Sep 13th 25	Sovrenn Times: Macroeconomy Update \| 21 Aug 2025
Sep 13th 25	Sovrenn Times: Macroeconomy Update \| 20 Aug 2025
Sep 13th 25	Sovrenn Times: Macroeconomy Update \| 19 August 2025
Sep 13th 25	Sovrenn Times: Macroeconomy Update \| 18 August 2025
Sep 13th 25	Sovrenn Times: Macroeconomy Update \| 14 August 2025
Sep 13th 25	Sovrenn Times: Macroeconomy Update \| 12 August 2025
Sep 13th 25	Sovrenn Times: Macroeconomy Update \| 11 August 2025

For any help

Whatsapp us at: +91 9651081944

Utilities ˅

Education

Times

Prime

Discovery

Ipo

Sovrenn Knowledge